Over the course of the past few years, I’ve noted several articles about extreme clear air turbulence (CAT) bouncing commercial jets around in mid-flight. According to the National Transportation Safety Board, several recent cases have involved abrupt drops of as many as 18,000 feet (that would be 3 miles). There have been injuries to flight attendants and passengers, some serious. There are also economic costs associated with these incidents, including long term airframe stress and even actual physical damage.
Clear air turbulence is not new to airline travel, but the significant increase in intensity and frequency over the past decades is. Not surprisingly, the phenomenon is scientifically attributed to disruption of high elevation wind patterns by the relentless warming associated with climate change. More specifically, the rough ride is caused by elevated wind shear — sudden changes in wind speed and direction — at altitudes above 15,000 feet. According to University of Reading’s Professor of Atmospheric Science Paul Williams, jet stream severe turbulence has increased by 15% since satellite measurement began in 1979. The most significant increases in wind shear were severe at +55% and moderate at +37%.
This trend was extensively documented again in a report by the Advanced Earth and Space Sciences, published last year. The report concluded that the uptick in wind shear was consistent with expectations of climate change.
This week we have a new story reporting a variation on that theme that would seem to focus on a related facet of air turbulence: In late February, commercial flights over the North Atlantic were pushed to speeds hundreds of MPH faster than normal, in some cases exceeding the speed of sound* in terms of ground speed. Upper atmosphere winds reached 265 mph, providing a powerful tailwind that scooted flights on their way for “better than on time performance.”
The US National Weather Service reported a Virgin Atlantic flight from Washington to London that was thrust to nearly 800mph. (Typical commercial planes average around 600 mph.)
These aberrant events are likewise attributed to massive changes wrought in every area of the planet by catastrophic global warming. In addition to increasing air temperatures, the changes in Jet Stream behavior is exacerbated by rapid melting of Arctic sea ice. The unpredictability of planetary wind patterns accounts for the stark increase all manner of extreme weather behavior, including violent weather events, droughts and wildfires.
As you consider that 2023 set another global record for warmest year in roughly a hundred thousands of years, as ocean temperatures run off the charts, as the North Atlantic is bathtub-warm months before hurricane season, as the fires of Canada’s disastrous 2023 conflagration continue burning underground, as CO2 levels crash through 425 ppm, as methane increases 15+ ppm yearly, as part of Australia bakes and the other half drowns, as rivers in the Arctic turn orange from toxin newly released from permafrost, as Spain and Italy endure relentless drought and historic water crises, as global river shipping is in jeopardized, as Antarctic sea ice undergoes an “abrupt critical transition” to another summer low extent, as a million acres and thousands of cattle are torched in the Texas Panhandle, as Greenland actually turns green with new vegetation, as large swaths of South America see catastrophic wildfires, as the Amazon is on the brink of no return, as glaciers in every mountain range melt away, as species of every kind migrate toward the poles….it’s hard not to see an alarming pattern. The variations from both long term and short term cycles is statistically stunning.
Although Forbes and other respected media have reported the turbulence and jet acceleration events, the news didn’t go much further. You didn’t see it reported on cable, with the exception of FOX, which denied it. While passengers and even crew have commented after a particularly harrowing event, the plane companies are mostly mum as they concentrate on tightening all the bolts on their products. However, it is telling that the NTSB issued new rules for flight safety after several 2023 incidents.
For all you denialist optimists out there who think there are benefits to global warming (“Hell I wouldn’t mind a milder winter.”) the good news is you may sometimes be able to get to Paris from Tulsa faster with an extra 265 tail wind.
The bad news is that getting back might be a real bitch.
