Global Floods July 2026

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps
Texas flash floods
Flash floods 2026 hit south central Texas region where dozens of young campers died last year

Many survivors in Kerr County still await aid from last year’s disaster

A year into recovery efforts in west Kerr County, many families are still waiting for permanent housing, rent help and access to resources, according to Hill Country organizations working with survivors.

The Community Foundation of the Texas Hill Country told Kerr County commissioners on Monday that many of the survivors it is working with still need permanent homes.

Only 138 of 641 families have had their cases closed, the foundation said. The organization has 32 case managers working to connect families with assistance.

Welcome to Greg Abbot’s Texas.

Welcome to Donald Trump’s America.

Kerr County floods from 202

Kerr County & Central Texas hammered by more  killer floods

Two people have died in fast moving flash floods in the same area of Texas still recovering from the deaths of two dozen campers last year. The floods on the Guadalupe River forced hundreds of rescues in western Kerr County,. Rescuers saved more than 200 people, including stranded drivers and people trapped in homes.. More rain is expected.

Aid from the state and federal government has been predictably slow in Kerr County. If you recall Department of Homeland Security approval requirements for FEMA Urban Search and Rescue deployments required personal approval from now deposed and shamed Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.. Some search-and-rescue resources were not authorized until more than 72 hours after the July 4, 2025 flooding began.

Many survivors continue to  experience lengthy delays or denials in receiving FEMA assistance, and this became a significant point of criticism during the months following the disaster.

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Global Map of Warming Events Summer 2026

Summer 2026 Global Climate Events

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Floods Sweep Russia’s Urals After 40-Year Rainfall Record Falls

Rainfall in the Sverdlovsk region has continued almost without interruption since the beginning of June.

By the end of the month, precipitation levels had surpassed the previous record established in 1986.

Bulgaria floods

Hail, hurricane winds in Bulgaria

Recovery efforts continue across Bulgaria after powerful storms swept through large the country July 22, bringing torrential rain, hurricane-force winds, intense lightning, and large hail. Cleanup operations remain underway as authorities deal with widespread damage to infrastructure, roads, and public spaces.

Chile Killer floods

El Niño driven Chilean floods 

Weeklong rainstorms blamed on El Nino that have battered Chile have killed at least 10 people. Another 100,000 have been cut off from services as authorities declared a state of emergency. Thousands of homes have been destroyed. 

Since last week, rain has lashed the typically arid northern regions of Coquimbo and Atacama, where such intense levels of precipitation are highly unusual.

Killer India floods in Himalayas

India’s Himalayan states lashed

Heavy monsoon rain is battering India’s Himalayan states. Himachal Pradesh is under an IMD warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall until July 20, with landslide risks high in Chamba, Kangra, Shimla and Mandi. Meanwhile, Arunachal Pradesh’s crisis is deepening — fresh floods and landslides hit East Siang and Kamle districts, affecting 25 villages in just 24 hours.

Flash Floods in Romania Sweep Away Cars

Cars swept away in Romania

A powerful flash flood swept through the mountain town of Bușteni July 19, carrying cars, rocks, and debris through the streets and blocking traffic on the busy DN1 national road. Emergency crews rescued several people trapped by the floodwaters, while dozens of homes were inundated

20 dead in Afghan floods

20 Dead in Afghan Floods

July’s floods in Afghanistan are among the country’s deadliest natural disasters of the year, striking after months of repeated flooding had already weakened communities. The worst damage occurred in the mountainous eastern province of Nuristan, where intense monsoon-related rainfall triggered catastrophic flash floods on July 20–21, 2026.

Shanghai floods and heatwave

Shanghai climate whiplash

Record rains followed record heat (104°F)
as Shanghai roads flooded after thunderstorms brought torrential rain to the city on mid-July. More than 8 in. of rain of rain fell within five hours in Yangpu district, inundating underground supermarkets and malls. Local weather authorities expect heavy rain to continue in the coming days.

 

Global Warming Events Mid July 2026: Billings Montana 111°F

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10,000+ reported Dead In Back to Back European Heatwaves

Toxic Canadian Wildfire Smoke Returns

Billings Montana 111°F July 13

Global Map climate events summer 2026

French Wildfire evacuations

10,000 evacuated In French wildfire emergencies 

At least 10,000 people were evacuated  as wildfires raged in southern France as the region battles massive forest fires. Among those who have been evacuated are believed to be thousands of tourists including people who were staying in campsites..

On July 11, firefighting choppers and other equipment was diverted to dangerous fires near Paris, an unusual step considering the situation in the south. The fire in the Fontainebleau Forest southeast of Paris forced the evacuation of approximately 1,000 residents, disrupting transportation and drawing hundreds of firefighters into an around-the-clock effort to contain the advancing flames.

Approximately 32,000 hectares have burned across France during 2026.

Canadian Wildfire 2.0: Toxic Smoke Envelops US Midwest and East Coast 

Mandatory evacuations

More than 830 wildfires were burning mid July in Canada, along with more than a dozen in northern Minnesota. The conflagration is growing (July 15) with no containment. , near the border, growing with little or no containment and forcing mandatory evacuations. Massive quantities of poison smoke are blowing into the Midwest and Northeast. 

Some of the largest wildfires are burning in heavy forests in central Ontario, and those fires are burning through thick forests, spewing even more smoke than previous fires. It escapes many that smoke from these fires is very toxic, with effects that many manifest many years later. 

Toxic Canadian smoke envelopes midwest

Germany estimates 5000 heat-related deaths

According to a report published on July 9 by the Robert Koch Institute, which oversees public health in Germany, over 5000 deaths are linked to high temperatures in the nation.  

The heatwave that swept across Europe at the end of June proved even deadlier in Germany than in France. Although it arrived later, it reportedly caused around 5,100 deaths in Germany; 4,310 of those occurred during the single week of June 22-28 – the hottest week in the country of all time.  Of the 5,100 people who died, 4,270 were over the age of 75.

The actual number of deaths is likely to be considerably higher. 

 

 

 

Second heatwave smothers large swaths of USA

Large swathes of the US and Canada are facing yet another heatwave bringing extreme temperatures and poor air quality.

Toronto and other Canadian cities as well as parts of the US Midwest and Northeast will see the high temperatures that started on Tuesday continue into Wednesday. Further west in the US, millions of Americans already braved the heat.

Millions of people are under advisories in Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and as far west as Buffalo, New York, through Wednesday.

The high temperatures come not long after a record-breaking 4 July heatwave hit large portions of the US, leading experts to warn people to exercise caution.

A strong area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is building eastwards across the US and parts of Canada.

This dome of hot and humid air has already led to all-time temperature records being broken in parts of Montana and Utah, and now the heat is shifting eastwards.

July heat dome usa

Heat Wave and Drought Threatens Critical Rhine River Shipping Chokepoint 

The Rhine River’s water levels are a near record lows for mid-summer, the worst in several decades. In particular, levels are the critical critical Kaub chokepoint are already beginning to impact shipping of fuel and other essentials. The situation is developing as  Europe struggles with intense back to back heat waves and drought.

Heatwaves and drought have sent water levels on Germany’s Rhine river plunging to multi-year lows, driving up freight costs on the world’s busiest inland shipping route.

The Rhine’s depth dropped as low as 53cm measured at the critical passage chokepoint near Frankfurt, marking the lowest July reading in decades. After the record lows of 2018, there was a similar crisis in 2022. Levels also dropped sharply at this time last year. The Rhine is fed by snow melting in the Alps and replenishing the river’s source at Lake Constance on the Swiss-German border. But snow coverage was patchy this past winter.

Rhine river levels threaten shipping

Spain wildfires kill 12

12 dead in horrendous Spanish wildfires

Described by a BBS reporters as “a sea of black,” the village of Bédar, in southern Spain’s Almería province has been virtually razed to the ground by a massive wildfire 

The blaze spread rapidly through the region in early July. Hundreds of firefighters have fought the fires, which have claimed the lives of 12 people.

Wildfires have burned through 6,600 hectares (16,300 acres) in the province. France, Portugal and Spain. have seen devastation early this summer by a sustained heatwave with temperatures of around  104°F (40C) .

Wildfires cause major damage to Moroccan oases 

Moroccan authorities continued Saturday to battle a wildfire that has swept through the Afous oasis in southeastern Errachidia province, damaging vast areas of palm groves as firefighters worked to bring the blaze under control without reported casualties.

A local official told Anadolu on condition of anonymity that crews were still working to contain the fire, which broke out Friday. The extent of damage to the oasis area has yet to be fully determined, he added.

The operation comes as Morocco faces an elevated wildfire threat amid a severe heat wave and exceptionally dry conditions.

Authorities earlier urged residents living near forests in 12 provinces to remain vigilant until July 12 after the National Agency for Water and Forests issued extreme fire-risk warnings.

The agency placed forested areas in 12 of Morocco’s 75 provinces under its highest red alert level, indicating an extreme likelihood of wildfires. Orange alerts signal a high risk and require increased precautions.

Moroccan wildfires amidst record temperatures

 

Global warming: what does AI say about it?

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

What ChatGPT has to say about Global Warming:

We asked ChatGPT what it (being cautious with pronouns here) thought about Global Warming during quieter moments. The first question was simple: 

Is Global Warming a threat to human existence?

The short answer is: global warming is a serious threat to human civilization and well-being, but it is not generally considered an existential threat to humanity as a species under the most likely scenarios.

It’s useful to distinguish between two questions:

  1. Could climate change kill billions of people and fundamentally disrupt civilization? Yes, it could contribute to extremely severe global disruption, especially if warming becomes very large.
  2. Could climate change cause the extinction of Homo sapiens? Most climate scientists consider this unlikely based on current evidence.

Continue below:

 

 

Could civilization be threatened?

Some researchers warn that very high warming (around 4–5°C or more above pre-industrial levels), especially when combined with geopolitical conflict, food shortages, migration, and economic instability, could create cascading crises that severely challenge modern civilization.

Potential cascading effects include:

  • simultaneous crop failures across continents
  • mass displacement of hundreds of millions of people
  • increased conflict over water and food
  • financial instability
  • infrastructure failures
  • strain on governments and international cooperation

These outcomes are uncertain, but they are considered plausible enough that scientists study them seriously.

Could humans go extinct?

Current evidence suggests this is unlikely.

Humans are remarkably adaptable. We live from deserts to the Arctic and possess technology that allows us to modify our environments. Climate change alone is not expected to make Earth uninhabitable for our species.

However, that does not mean the risks are small. A world that remains habitable could still experience enormous suffering, widespread displacement, major economic losses, and irreversible environmental change.

Why urgency still matters

The future is not predetermined. The amount of warming depends largely on future greenhouse gas emissions.

Compared with a world that warms by 4°C, limiting warming closer to 2°C or below substantially reduces many risks, including:

  • fewer deadly heat waves
  • less sea-level rise over the coming centuries
  • lower risk of ecosystem collapse
  • better food security
  • fewer people exposed to flooding and drought

Bottom line

Global warming is not generally viewed as likely to cause human extinction, but it is one of the greatest long-term risks facing humanity. It threatens food, water, health, infrastructure, economies, biodiversity, and geopolitical stability. The severity of those impacts depends strongly on how much additional warming occurs and how effectively societies adapt and reduce emissions.

In other words, the greatest risk is not that humanity disappears, but that billions of people face a substantially more dangerous, less stable, and less prosperous world if warming continues unchecked.

Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) threaten life in Pakistan

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Relentless heatwave in Pakistan is accelerating glacier melt, threatening life downstream with sudden floods and landslides

Northern Pakistan is entering what experts consider another high-risk Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) season. The combination of unusually warm temperatures, rapid glacier melt, and periods of intense rainfall has created conditions in which unstable glacial lakes can suddenly release enormous volumes of water, rock, and sediment into valleys below. Pakistani authorities have issued repeated alerts throughout the spring and early summer of 2026 as these risks have increased.

A GLOF occurs when a lake formed by meltwater behind a natural dam of ice or loose rock (moraine) suddenly fails. The resulting flood can travel downstream at very high speeds, carrying boulders, trees, and debris that destroy roads, bridges, homes, farmland, and power infrastructure.

Northern Pakistan is especially vulnerable because it contains more than 13,000 glaciers—the largest concentration outside the polar regions. As glaciers retreat, they leave behind thousands of growing glacial lakes, many of which are unstable. Approximately 130 of these lakes are under active monitoring because they pose significant flood risks.

The GLOF problem in northern Pakistan is part of a wider climate challenge across the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindu Kush region. Rising temperatures are causing glaciers to lose mass and creating new glacial lakes faster than many can be stabilized. Scientists expect the frequency of dangerous GLOFs to increase over the coming decades, making adaptation, monitoring, and early warning systems increasingly important alongside efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emission

 

Glacier Lake Outburst Flood risk in Pakistan as high heat melts glaciers
Glacier Lake Outburst Flood risk in Pakistan as high heat melts glaciers

Fire Tornado (Fire Devil) in Chernobyl Exclusion Zone

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Fire tornado in chernobyl zone

chernobyl map shows distance from Kyiv
Chernobyl map shows distance from Kyiv
Chernobyl fires seen from Kyiv
Chernobyl fires seen from Kyiv

Combine nuclear disaster and the forever war then mix in a hint of global warming and things  could start to seem a little apocalyptic.

Sixty miles from Kyiv, Ukrainian authorities have been battling out of control blazes in the highly contaminated Exclusion Zone surrounding the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant since late June.

One of the blazes erupted into a terrifying phenomenon known as a fire tornado or fire devil. Specifically, a fire tornado combines flame and dust driven by extreme winds. With cataclysmic wildfires increasing yearly and extreme heat becoming common, more fire tornados are reported globally.

Air pollution from the fires is affecting air quality in Kyiv and surrounding region. Satellites have recorded large plumes of polluted air with increased levels of carbon monoxide extending 100 mi. from the epicenter of the fire in the exclusion zone. 

The 9 mile radius exclusion zone was established  after the 1986 nuclear disaster. The 1,000 square miles forested area remains closed to the public.

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“History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man.”

– Godzilla, Blue Oyster Cult, 1977

Chernobyl safe containment dome
Chernobyl safe containment dome

2026 Status: Everything is cool until it isn’t. The most radioactive component of the facility is contained under a $1 billion Safe Containment structure complete in but under increased risk because of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Reactor 4 and the New Safe Confinement

The destroyed Reactor 4 is enclosed beneath the massive New Safe Confinement (NSC), a steel dome completed in 2019 to isolate the damaged reactor while allowing dismantling of the original 1986 concrete shelter. It measures

  • 108 m (354 ft) x Span: 257 m (843 ft) x Length: 162 m (531 ft) amd weighs about 36,000 tons.

However, the NSC suffered significant damage from a drone strike in February 2025: The outer shell was punctured and parts of the roof were damaged; Its airtight confinement capability has been degraded..

Radioactive material

Inside Reactor 4 remain:

  • roughly 180–190 tonnes of fuel-containing materials (solidified lava-like corium and fuel debris),
  • large amounts of radioactive dust,
  • contaminated structural materials.

These materials remain hazardous for many decades. The containment dome is warranted for 100 years.

 

Excessive Heat Shuts Down Nukes and Trains In France

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Europe’s infrastructure isn’t ready for global warming

Three French nuclear plants halted production during this week’s record-breaking heatwave as rivers became too warm to cool them, raising questions over the long-term future of Europe’s biggest nuclear fleet. 

“Nuclear power is clearly a 20th-century technology that is ill-suited to the 21st,” said Yves Marignac, an independent nuclear expert and spokesperson for the think tank négaWatt.

“The warning signs are becoming stronger every year.”

During the record heat wave, some railroads were shut down due to concerns about buckling tracks.

HOSPITALS, FUNERAL HOMES AND SCHOOLS ARE NOT AIR CONDITIONED

The extent of the looming challenge is not necessarily obvious. For example, as hundred die of heat related causes, Paris morgues have been overwhelmed. Let’s think about that for a bit. Few homes in France are equipped with air-conditioning units, and most schools are not designed to cope with extreme heat.

 

107°F smashes all time German high

Records fall across Europe

Germany recorded a new all-time high of 107°F, in Coschen, near the Polish border in eastern Brandenburg, according to preliminary data from the national weather service. 

French nuclear reactor shut down amidst lethal heat wave
Ambulance services responded to more than 122,000 callouts during the hottest period of the heatwave.

 

Germany, Czechia, Poland and Hungary reached record temperatures of more than 105°F as a heatwave linked to thousands of deaths in western Europe spread east.  

 

105°F Słubice, Poland  | 113°F Spain | 107°F Coschen, Germany  105°F Budakalász, Hungary | 107°F Doksany, Czechia 

World’s oceans break June heat record:

Global average sea surface temperature in June reached a record  20.98°C, capping six months of near-record ocean warmth and widespread marine heat waves that affected 82% of oceans. The long predicted El Niño, combined with ongoing greenhouse gas–driven warming, is expected to push temperatures higher, intensify weather extremes, accelerate sea-level rise, and increase coral bleaching and marine ecosystem stress.

Although Western Europe has seen some relief after record June temperatures, Mercalli said another surge of hot weather is expected from July 5 or 6, affecting France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Switzerland and parts of Britain. Early estimates of excess deaths range from 1,500 to 2,000.

Fire and Rain: Sicily’s climate whiplash

Fire followed by Hail in Sicily
Fire followed by Hail in Sicily

Sicily goes from fire to hail in a matter of hours. After days of African heat, scorching temperatures, and muggy weather, the island is dealing with wildfires in several areas and the first violent thunderstorms heralding the change in weather. 

200 evacuated in Andalusia: 113°F record

Wildfires in Andalusia
Wildfires in Andalusia

The country has just emerged from a record-breaking heatwave that left hundreds dead and pushed temperatures beyond 113°F.

Following a record dry spell in May, topsoil has been stripped of moisture, eliminating the land’s natural ability to cool itself – and creating near-ideal conditions for fires to ignite and spread. Authorities have warned of a high risk of wildfires amid a worsening drought, with the accumulated heat expected to persist into early July..

Morrocco issues red alert as temps hit 116°F

Morocco wildfires red alert
Morocco wildfires red alert

The fire risk warning comes alongside a weather alert issued by the General Directorate of Meteorology regarding a heat wave from Tuesday through Thursday, with temperatures reaching up to 46 °C (115 °F) in some regions of the country….

Lethal wildfires cause evacuations in Greece

Killer wildfires Greece
Burned out home in Greece

A wildfire raging through forest and farmland near the village of Kalapodi in central Greece forced evacuation orders for two villages in the area Wednesday,

Another wildfire on the Methana peninsula of the northern Peloponnese region mobilised about 40 firefighters and three water-dropping aircraft. And at Koufalia near Thessaloniki, 30 firefighters and three aircraft were deployed to deal with two scrub fires.

Croatia hits new high of 103°F as wildfires threaten coast

Wildfires threaten Croatian coast
Wildfires threaten Croatian coast

Croatia’s weather service issued red alerts for several regions, including the capital, Zagreb, and the tourist cities of Split and Dubrovnik. On the Adriatic island of Vis, dozens of firefighters, backed by four aircraft, battled a wildfire burning through pine forests  35 miles southwest of Split. The fires were triggered by lightning as violent storms followed the heat wave.

Much of the Balkans also remained under extreme heat, with temperatures above 95°F forecast across parts of Croatia, Serbia, Romania and Hungary.

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Wildfires in France force evacuations

Wildfires in southern France

A large wildfire raged in southern France on Wednesday, July 1, forcing scores of people to be evacuated, emergency services said. Hundreds of firefighters mobilized to battle the blaze in the Hérault and Aude departments, fueled by drought and strong winds….

US looming water shortages are a silent crisis

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

You can’t see a disaster coming when you turn a blind eye

Western snow drought is making the western water crisis worse

Western snow drought morphs into extended water crisis

Unless you live in the West, it would be easy to miss the fact that the states within the Colorado River Basin are battling for their regional allotments in the culmination of a slow moving disaster decades in the making. Kicking the crisis into overdrive is the current record low snow water equivalent in the states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. The Colorado River Basin is forecast to produce less than 30% of its average runoff and experienced its warmest March on record. California’s river basins experienced their driest March. 

Ogallala aquifer in long term decline

Ogallala aquifer continues to fail as use exceeds replenishment

The Ogallala Aquifer is one of the largest groundwater reservoirs in the world, underlying parts of eight Great Plains states from Texas to South Dakota. It supplies water for about a quarter to a third of U.S. irrigation and supports a major share of American grain, cotton, and livestock production. Large-scale pumping for irrigation since the 1950s has removed water much faster than natural recharge can replace it. On average, groundwater levels have fallen substantially, with some areas experiencing declines exceeding 200 feet and localized declines of more than 300 feet.

 

Corpus Christi water supply is running on empty

Corpus Christ can’t seem to face its water crisis 

Seven straight years of record heat, sporadic rainfall and incompetent leadership has the Texas oil hub in danger of becoming the first U.S. city to run short of water.

YOU CAN’T DRINK OIL, CAN YOU? In addition to the prolonged drought, one of the primary drivers of demand for water is….Rapid growth in industrial water demand, especially from refineries, petrochemical plants, and facilities tied to the Port of Corpus Christi.

 

Driven by warming oceans, red algae mess on Brittany coast arrives “way early”

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Early manifestation of a fast growing global ecological crisis

Large quantities of red algae have washed up on beaches in Brittany far earlier than usual this year, a phenomenon local officials say is linked to rising temperatures, warmer spring weather and agricultural pollution. While they traditionally take place around the height of summer – often as late as October – these “blooms” (as they are called)  increasingly appear in May and June as spring temperatures rise sooner on the heating planet.

Like green algae, red algae present a health risk when large accumulations begin to decompose during periods of hot weather. Some harmful algal blooms produce toxins that cause stomach pain, skin irritation, headaches and respiratory problems. They also release Hydrogen Sulfide (H2S) gas, a poison and sometimes lethal gas. Jogger Death By Algae: The 2026 event occurs ten years after a jogger died on the Breton coast from inhaling the gas.

In addition to the warming waters that accelerate algae growth, pollution from large scale pig farms in Brittany contribute to the problem

Globally, algae and toxic seaweed incursions are fouling coastlines around the planet, including Florida, Australia, the Pacific Islands and the extended western coast of Europe.  READ MORE.\

> JAPANESE SEAWOOD INCURSION: Trengandín beach in Noja has been re-covered by the invasive Japanese seaweed, Rugulopteryx okamurae, a species that reproduces faster as the sea water warms. Last summer, the invasion of this seaweed on the beaches of Cantabria forced the removal of 10,000 tons of algae from the beaches. 

 

Red Algae mess comes to Breton coastline

Super El Niño effects already showing in record temps globally.

It’s pushing 100°F in Portland, OR and 122°F in Pakistan as the long predicted El Nino arrives for the foreseeable future.

Here’s a sample of what’s going on in the rapidly warming world:

LINK.

Thunder Key Music Video

Thunder Key Recounts A Story of Climate Refugee Survival

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

Thunder Key video focus on climate change refugees

An original music video.

A father and daughter face life as climate refugees. 

 

 

THUNDER KEY is not a protest song. And it’s not a warning song. It’s about optimism—the kind we need if we hope to get through what is inevitably to come. People say, “Keep hope alive.” Good idea. But maybe add to that: Hope will keep us alive – Phil

Massive marine heatwave + Super El Nino coming at you

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“I’m out of superlatives…”*

An enormous marine heatwave off the US west coast has got ocean and atmospheric scientists freaking out, although you’d never know it from the news coverage it isn’t receiving. The extreme temperature anomaly is affecting a vast expanse of the  North Pacific in May 2026. The latest data shows intensifying ecological and environmental effects affecting marine life as well as weather patterns across North America. 

Coastal waters along the U.S. West Coast have been roughly 3–4°F (≈1.5–2.5°C) above normal in places, while satellite analysis shows localized sea‑surface‑temperature anomalies exceeding +4°C in parts of the North Pacific on early‑May maps. 

According to NOAA, the phenomenon is comprised of two distinct temperature events: a persistent coastal heatwave and a separate offshore warm pool. and are monitoring whether they will grow and merge later in summer or fall.

Forecasters are also concerned because a strong El Niño is likely to develop in 2026; if El Niño becomes established it would tend to reinforce and prolong Pacific warming. (NOAA/CPC ENSO outlooks in spring 2026 show elevated odds of El Niño by mid‑ to late‑2026.

The unusual area of warm water has persisted since peaking during September 2025 and still stretches thousands of miles from the California coastline – more than halfway across the Pacific – affecting a vast triangle-shaped region of oceanic habitats from Hawaii to British Columbia and southward to Mexico.

As recently as early April, marine scientists had hoped that the heatwave might diminish and the worst of its effects might be avoided. However, new projections released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show it is now expected to expand and strengthen in the months to come.

Either of these climate conditions will create severe negative impacts across a wide swath of the planet. Together, the effects may well be catastrophic as the summer rolls on.

 

* University of Arizona atmospheric scientist Kin Wood

 

Marine heatwave combines with super el nino

Marine heatwave lurks in the pacific

Accelerating global warming effects as systems combine

When a very strong (super) El Niño coincides with a marine heat wave, effects amplify and interact across the climate system and ecosystems. Key consequences:

Climate and weather

  • Global temperatures spike: El Niño raises global mean surface temperature; a marine heat wave adds ocean heat storage—together push global and regional temperatures higher than either alone.
  • Stronger, more extreme precipitation and flooding in El Niño-favored regions (e.g., western South America, parts of the southern U.S.): heavier storms, landslides, urban flooding.
  • Worsened drought in regions that typically dry during El Niño (e.g., parts of Australia, Indonesia, India): agricultural stress, water shortages.
  • Tropical cyclone behavior can change: some basins produce fewer storms, others produce more intense storms because of warmer sea surface temperatures and altered wind shear patterns.
  • Increased heat waves on land and higher evaporation, raising wildfire risk in vulnerable regions.

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Toll on Marine Life and Birds

Ecologists and bird‑rescue groups are already reporting seabird strandings and shifts in species ranges (e.g., subtropical species moving north). Marine‑heatwave conditions raise risks of harmful algal blooms, reduced productivity for fisheries (affecting salmon and other species), and broader ecosystem stress that can cascade for months or years.

 

Additional effects

  • Severe coral bleaching and large-scale reef mortality due to prolonged high sea surface temperatures.
  • Fishery collapse or massive shifts in species distributions as warm-water species move, upwelling weakens, and primary productivity drops.
  • Hypoxia events and harmful algal blooms may increase, further stressing marine life.