Permafrost Detachment Slides: A new type of Arctic collapse phenomenon

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps
Johnson River Valley Detachment Slide

When permafrost is no longer permanent, crazy things happen: 

Once trapped GHG Methane is released into the atmosphere More

Mountain slopes destabilize More

Alpine Glacier lakes produce devastating flash floods More

Rivers turns orange with toxins More

Megaslumps open up and expland More

Human Infrastructure fails More

Coastal ice shelves destabilize More

 

Johnson River Valley Detachment Slide
Johnson River Valley Detachment Slide

Warming tundra produces another surprise consequence

WHEN LONG TERM ICE MELTS, THE LAND ITSELF BECOMES DESTABILIZED.

Over the past two decades, the landforms of the Arctic have been transforming in multiple ways, some of which are spectacular in the tree falling in the forest sense. That is, there is almost never anyone there to see them. Among the most visible are megaslumps which we have cover here previously and the heartbreaking Nepal catastrophe of August 2026. All of these things are related. 

The most recently discovered phenomena are called permafrost detachment slides. According to a paper published Sept. 23 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, these slides occur in areas with relatively thin permafrost. They are most likely a long-term impact of wildfire in sub-polar regions across the Arctic. In the paper. Joseph Young of the University of Alberta, this type of slide haw not been observed previously. 

 

El Niño drives tropical marine species up the coast

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps
El Nino drives marine species north

El Nino drives marine species north

“It’s just nuts, what’s going on out there.” – Mike Couffer, Newport Beach biologist.

“This is the most profound movement of tropical fishes into California that anyone’s ever seen.” – Milton Love, UC Santa Barbara’s Marine Science Institute in The Atlantic.

Warm waters are pushing exotic marine species hundreds of miles north

El Nino is pushing dozens of tropical marine species north up the California coast into the waters off of Southern California. The species include Whale sharks, giant manta rays, wahoo and blue marlin, star-studded grouper, orange creole fish, three-banded butterflyfish, and other exotic fish. These tropical marine animals are hundreds of miles from their normal habitat.  Many have never before been seen in California waters.

The warm waters are caused by the most powerful El Niño in history, which has heated the Pacific ocean to historic levels. 

While this movement is especially dramatic and possibly temporary, it is consistent with the global migration of hundreds of species toward the poles. Inevitably, when new species arrive, existing animals are threatened. During a marine heat wave a decade ago, about half the kelp forests in the region died.

Mosquitos and ticks are spreading viruses in locations they have not previously inhabited. 

Global map of climate driven events and trends >

Tropical virus mosquitos invade Switzerland, sea ice collapsing in Antarctic and more alarming news from the Twaites ice shelf, glaciers disappearing everywhere. Catastrophic flooding on virtually every continent. A 5,000 mile wide band of brown toxic seaweed. Record West Coast floods as first Kelvin wave arrives. CO2 absorption increasing ocean acidity,

Regular updates at Global Warming Events and Trends Autumn 2026.

Global map of climate events autumn 2026

Updates on global warming driven events and trends of Autumn 2026

 

Thwaites Glacier: Runaway Climate Disaster in Antarctica

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Thwaites glacier chart

Thwaites Ice Shelf blocks 10 feet of sea level rise

The “Doomsday Glacier”

Bad news at the bottom of the planet

The Thwaites floating Ice shelf glacier in Antarctica is the size of Florida.

Neither land ice nor sea ice, it holds enough frozen fresh water to raise coastal water levels up to 2 feet if it all of it were to  melt.

But that’s not why it’s called (for better or worse) the Doomsday Glacier. As a hybrid coastal ice shelf, the Thwaites acts as a cork that blockades the rim of the West Antarctic ice sheet. If all of the ice in the interior behind the shelf were to melt, sea levels would rise up to 10 feet. That is unlikely to happen in the near future, but the scenario is now on the table as global warming accelerates. 

New research shows warming water beneath the ice shelf

A recent Dutch study indicates that Twaites is likely to contribute twice as much water to sea level rise as previously projected. The study is based on the discovery that the grounding zone where the shelf rests on the sea bed is not stable (see diagram). As it bobs under wave influence, warm water pushes pushes the glacier, creating cracks and vast channels that in turn trigger further melting. 

According to the study published in Nature Communications, author Mattia Poinelli says previous simulations have not taken this scenario into account. The new study helps explain the previous variation between observed behavior and satellite images. This process is a climate feedback loop, which means there is little probability it will reverse within a human time span. 

Thwaites warming from beneath

Outer Banks Homes Collapse

Three decades of melt felt around the world

THINK OF IT LIKE THIS: THE THWAITES ACCOUNTS FOR THE RECENT COLLAPSE OF OBX COASTAL REAL ESTATE

Thwaites contributes about 4 percent to sea level rise, which over the past three decades amounts to about 4 inches. The new model shows that Thwaites will add another inch or so of sea level rise by the end of the century. Again, that’s just the ice contained in the Thwaites formation, and it assumes warming will continue at the current rate.

However,  recent research projection doubles the estimate from previous models. In real world terms, that quantity corresponds to the rampant sea level rise that has sent 30 homes in North Carolina crashing into the Atlantic in the past 6 years. 

Thwaites glacier chart

Yes, this really is a doomsday feedback

THE ROLE OF ICE SHELVES

Thwaites acts as a brake holding back the land based ice sheet on the continent. As Thwaites deteriorates, incalculable amounts of frozen fresh water is exposed to warmer ocean waters. creating a classic feedback loop. If Thwaites were to succumb entirely, the whole interior of the sheet might follow suit, raising sea levels by as much as 10 – 15 feet over time.

 

 

“These results show that past changes in ocean-driven melting have now committed us to unavoidable future ice loss from Thwaites Glacier. This ice loss cannot be undone or prevented by simply cooling the ocean.” 

Dr Rosie Williams, lead author glaciologist, British Antarctic Survey.

New research led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has found that Thwaites Glacier will continue losing ice for at least the next 150 years, even under the extreme ocean cooling conditions.

More to think about – It’s all about the ice

The most recent developments regarding Thwaites Glacier and its companion Pine Island are alarming in their own right. This feedback loop is already irreversible. It’s isn’t hard to grasp as far as the basic facts go:  The ice loss is caused by the ocean melting the glaciers’ floating ice shelves, leading to thinning and retreat of the glacier further inland. That could add multiple feet to sea levels over the next decades. BUT IT’S JUST ONE COMPONENT. Please take the time to read this summary of how global ice in all it’s forms is the key to the global warming crisis.

THE FUTURE OF A WARMING PLANET IS REFLECTED IN ICE

Future of a warming planet is reflected in ICE

 

AUTUMN 2026 CLIMATE EVENTS

A partial update on catastrophic floods, drought and violent weather.

Check in here.

 

T

The future of a warming planet is reflected in Ice

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

Glacial Lake Outbursts | Collapsing Permafrost | Feedback loops

Crumbling mountains | Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current

The future of a warming planet is reflected in ice

The key role of ice in global warming

The cause and effect relationship between runaway global warming and Earth’s vast stores of frozen water is far more significant than melting ice caps and shrinking polar bear habitat. From Greenland’s ice sheets to Siberian permafrost thaw to collapsing Alpine mountain slopes, there is virtually nowhere on the Earth the planet’s vast reserves of ice aren’t melting fast. For better or worse, the consequences of this phenomenon are not obvious on a global scale. This page covers several interrelated topics that don’t penetrate public awareness.

Future of a warming planet is reflected in ICE

Polar Ice Formations: How they affect global climate

Fundamentals: Location, location, location

A key factor in global ice melting patterns is an often overlooked matter of basic geography.

  • The North Pole is frozen ocean (Sea Ice)
  • The South Pole is a massive land continent covered by trillions of tons of snow pack and ice (land ice, sea ice, shelf ice).

For the purposes of climate science, the three categories of ice are dictated by where ice is located and what state of matter it is in.

SEA ICE : Disappearing rapidly in the Arctic and more sporadically in the Antarctic since 2016. Sea ice floats but does not raise sea levels significantly when it melts. It does affect weather patterns and the Albedo reflectivity feedback. Extreme Antarctic sea ice variations have contributed to ocean current destabilization, which in turn destablizes weather patterns.

LAND ICE (fresh water): Trillions of tons of land ice on Greenland, Alaska, Iceland and the Antarctic continent contain enough fresh water to raise sea levels several meters.. 

SHELF ICE (fresh water): Hybrid formations are critical to braking the flow of land ice into the ocean. The “front” of an ice shelf rests on land and the “back” floats in the ocean, subjecting it to accelerated warming. (See middle column)

The Doomsday Ice Shelf

Thwaites Ice Shelf

The Twaites Glacier ice shelf on the West Antarctic peninsula is known as the “Doomsday Glacier.”  It is expected to break up in the very near future. If it collapsed completely, it would raise global sea levels about two feet. Equally alarming, the Thwaites and other coastal shelves act as a brake on the advancing land ice on the continent behind them.. That’s were another 10 – 15 feet of sea level rise is trapped.

New research shows that this Florida sized formation is melting being eaten away by warm water below, in the “grounding zone.” That is a feedback loop as scary as any of the other dozen or so irreversible cycles. 

Albedo Reflectivity Feedback

Albedo reflectivity Feedback Number One

ALBEDO REFLECTIVITY FEEDBACK LOOP: The mechanism of this relentless positive feedback cycle is easy to understand. When sunlight radiates on Ice and snow, the heat energy is reflected back into space. But when sea ice disappears, the heat energy is absorbed directly into dark ocean water, heating it. The warm ocean melts more ice, which then opens more water to the heat energy. Repeat. See other climate feedbacks..

“Third pole” ice melt threatens water supplies for 2 billion humans

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region supplies water to major river systems including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Yellow River, Mekong and Amu Darya

The Himalayan ecosphere is changing before our eyes

DISAPPEARING ICE IN HIMALAYAN GLACIERS IS ACCELERATING A MAMMOTH WATER CRISIS

The Himalayas store more frozen water than any other source except the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. While glaciers are visually compelling as tourist attractions, they are also essential as renewable water sources for agriculture and drinking water. These high mountain glaciers feed rivers that sustain nearly one-fourth of the world’s population. For thousands of years, billions of humans downstream have relied on a predictable seasonal release of glacial water into rivers, but global warming has quickly changed the scenario.  With some glaciers losing ice mass at four times the normal rate, the region faces a convergence of environmental, health, and geopolitical crises.

TWO-EDGED SWORD: Near term, accelerated melting produces too much water too quickly—including devastating Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs – see right column). Longer term, continued glacier shrinkage means less dependable water during the dry season, when millions of people most need it. At some point, when the glaciers are gone, the outcome is the permanent end of this water source.

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Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

160 ft wall of water sweeps down Himalayan pass

While the catastrophic Nepal event that killed 15,00  in
August 2026 is a major GLOF event, it is far from an isolated occurrence. In 2023, the South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim, India, killed dozens of people and caused extensive infrastructure damage.

HOW GLOFs HAPPEN: As glaciers retreat, meltwater accumulates in lakes behind unstable moraine or ice dams. These lakes can grow rapidly. A landslide, avalanche, ice collapse, earthquake or extreme rainfall can suddenly displace water or breach the dam:

These floods travel rapidly down narrow valleys, carrying boulders, mud, trees and enormous quantities of sediment.

About  200 glacial lakes across the Hindu Kush Himalaya are considered dangerous.  A significant acceleration in GLOF events began in the 1980s, with the annual frequency increasing from 5.2 GLOFs during 1981–1990 to 15.2 GLOFs during 2011–2020. Overall, the long-term trajectory of reported GLOF frequency parallels variations in global air temperature, with a lag of about 20 years. GLOF risk will increase substantially as warming continues

Destabilized mountain structure

Thawing mountain threatens Swiss village

DESTABILIZATION: ROCK FALLS The Himalayan climate threat is more complex than melting glaciers alone. In a separate process. thawing alpine permafrost is causing a destabilization of the entire high-mountain environment.

For thousands of years, rock formations have been held together by ice to create a permafrost, which functions more or less as a “glue” to hold rock and soil in place. When ice that has previously remained frozen year round begins to melt and refreeze, water penetrates cracks previously stablized by frozen soil. As this cycle repeats, the entire mountain slope is structurally compromised. At some point, the side of the mountain fails, in the form of a rock fall or landslide. Rockslides often trigger GLOFs as debris cascades into glacial valleys. 

Glacier retreat also removes the ice that can buttress mountain slopes. 

“At some point, when the glaciers are gone, the outcome is the permanent end of this water source.”

Global consequences of rapid Permafrost thaw

A relentless methane feedback loop and transformed terrain

Driven by Arctic warming four times faster than the rest of the planet, the vast tundra plains of the north are thawing rapidly. While relatively few people think much about these unseen forces, the ramifications are global and implacable.

Methane Plumes: Melting permafrost is causing release of CO2 and CH4 trapped beneath once frozen surface. This is one cause for the rapid uptick in global atmospheric methane. Siberian levels of CH4 emissions have doubled in ten years.

Infrastructure Collapse: Biblical savior Joshua ben Joseph recommended not building your house on sand, but he should have also cautioned us not to build on permafrost. In Alaska, Siberia and northern Canada, buildings, highways and pipelines are falling down and smashing into the sea. Humans constructed these artifacts under the assumption that the land would stay solid, but it is NOT staying solid. As the ground sinks, humanity’s limitations are exposed. The situation is worse in coastal communities as increased water temperatures reduce protective ice and allow waves to wreck permafrost bluffs and increase erosion. 

Read a current story on collapsing buildings in Alaska..

Megaslump Craters: These massive blowholes are blasting out all over the far north, transforming Arctic terrain into a spooky landscape called Thermokarst. These unsettling and often very large craters (also known as thaw slumps) are formed as once-trapped methane escapes the permafrost that once trapped it below. Megaslumps and the starkly strange thermokarst terrrain that accompanies them are not new, but they are multiplying as the tundra transforms. Sometimes a megaslump starts with a small soil collapse, other times there is a dramatic blowout when pressure grows too great. Arctic scientists now videotape footage of grassland wobbling as the substrata becomes less solid. Multiple researchers have entertained themselves by setting escaping methane gas afire as it is released from long-frozen ponds..

Megaslump craters blasting out in Siberia/
The Batagaika crater is a thermokarst depression in the Chersky Range of Suberia. Known locally as The Gates to Hell, it is currently the largest known permafrost crater in the world. It continues to growing

Microbes beneath the tundra: Pathogens have already been released: 

Permanently frozen environments are natural reservoirs for microorganisms, including viruses, bacteria and humans pathogens. It is not currently considered likely that dangerous microbes such as smallpox are about to be released, but there is no question that dormant viruses will be released as the Arctic continues to heat up. The region is warming four times as fast as the rest of the planet. Which is warming very fast.

In 2015, researchers from Aix-Marseille University isolated two large DNA viruses in Siberia frozen for 30,000 years in ancient permafrost. They were not a threat to humans.

There was a well-documented anthrax outbreak in 2016 in Siberia. It killed thousands of reindeer. The cause of the outbreak is attributed to the activation of spores due to a permafrost thaw, accelerated during the summer heat wave of that year.

Permafrost is thawing rapidly in the Arctic, releasing once trapped methane and carbon monoxide.

Powerful Methane Feedback Loop as Arctic tundra thaws

  1. Permafrost thaws, releasing greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4).
  2. GHG’s trap heat in the atmosphere, increasing surface temperatures
  3. Permafrost melts faster, releasing more CH4.

Melting permafrost and damage to human infrastructure

Collapsing Arctic infrastructure as permafrost destabilizes: Nature has a way of pointing out the hubris of human endeavor.

Methane released from permafrost thaw

As once frozen Arctic ponds melt, flammable methane lurks beneath the surface.

“While relatively few people think much about these unseen forces, the ramifications are global and implacable..”

Greenland and Iceland: Unexpected forces at work

Rising land masses and changing global ocean currents

As massive quantities of fresh water enter the North Atlantic, things are changing quickly

1. THE ADDITION OF MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FRESH WATER INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS SLOWING DOWN THE GULF STREAM (AMOC)

The Gulf Stream is the best known component of the global ocean current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This global current is responsible for a major determining factor for planetary weather. It moderates Northern Europe’s climate, preventing a climate more like Siberia’s (see middle column for more). 

2. THE LAND MASS OF BOTH ISLANDS IS RISING AS THEY SHED THE WEIGHT OF ICE CAPS

There is no question that the addition of two mile thick melting ice caps into the ocean is raising sea levels. There is a range of projections regarding how quickly this process is taking place, but there is no doubt that it is gaining speed. Sea level rise is about double what it was in 1993. 

But there is a less obvious effect as well. As the ice sheets melt and flow into the North Atlantic, the land beneath is lifting up. This paradoxical scenario, in that these two land masses will experience less net sea level rise that other coastal areas. 

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Slowing the Atlantic Current

Freshwater melting from Greenland and Iceland affects the AMOC

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by shedding colossal quantities of fresh water to the North Atlantic. The system is currently the weakest it’s been in more than 1,000 years, having lost 10% to 20% of its strength due to climate change.

The AMOC is essentially a huge ocean conveyor that distributes heat from Tropical regions to the north. When the current slows, it transports less heat to Northern Europe. Even as the specific magnitude of the changes are the topic of ongoing research, the basics of the mechanism are straightforward and measurable. Most research indicates that the AMOC is already slowing.

HOW IT WORKS: Warm, salty surface water moves northward through the Atlantic. In the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, some of this water cools, becomes denser and sinks. The cooler water then flows back southward. This sinking action is the primary engine driving the overturning circulation.

Freshwater stored on land. When Greenland’s ice sheet melts and water reaches the North Atlantic, it changes the salinity of the ocean. The Greenland ice sheet contains enough freshwater to raise global sea levels by about 25 feet (7.4 meters) if it were to melt completely. It is the second-largest body of ice on Earth, and it is currently losing mass at an accelerating rate due to surface melting and the calving of glaciers into the sea. Credible estimates of melt rate are 12 million gallons a second or 266 billion tons a year. See article on sea level rise.

Arctic islands land mass lifting 

Greenland land mass rebounds as fresh water ice melts

As the miles-thick ice caps that cover Greenland and Iceland  melt and pour into the ocean,  the land beneath is rebounding as the burden eases. The seas around them may actually appear to be lower when compared to the global inundations that are happening around the rest of the planet. Even as these two islands are contribute significantly to global sea level rise – about 20% –  this paradox will mean expanding coastlines, dried-up fjords, and unforeseen challenges. 

The mounting global threat from Sargassum brown algae

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

 

The Great Atlantic Stinky Sargassum Belt

 

Sargassum, a floating brown seaweed that was once largely beneficial to Atlantic marine ecosystems, has become one of the most serious emerging environmental threats to tropical coastlines. Vast accumulations are washing ashore across the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America, northern South America, and parts of West Africa. WHEN IT DECAYS, IT STINKS.

The phenomenon has grown dramatically since 2011, when scientists began documenting a new, enormous accumulation of floating seaweed extending across the tropical Atlantic. This is now known as the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt.

The phenomenon has grown dramatically since 2011, when scientists began documenting a new, enormous accumulation of floating seaweed extending across the tropical Atlantic. This is now known as the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt.
The problem is not simply that beaches are becoming covered in rotting vegetation. Massive Sargassum inundations threaten marine life, coral reefs, coastal economies, fisheries, tourism, and human health. These massive blooms  also illustrate how warming oceans, changing currents, and nutrient pollution can combine to destabilize marine ecosystems.

A nasty brown mass extending shore to shore across the ocean

The Sargassum belt can stretch more than 5,000 miles (8,000 kilometers), from the waters off West Africa across the tropical Atlantic toward the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Unlike most seaweeds, the two principal species involved—Sargassum natans and Sargassum fluitans—float freely at the ocean surface throughout their lives. Gas-filled structures keep them buoyant, allowing them to travel enormous distances.

In the open ocean, floating Sargassum provides valuable habitat for fish, crabs, sea turtles, and other animals. It becomes destructive primarily when excessive quantities enter shallow coastal waters or wash ashore.

Sargassum inundation West Africa

Brown Tide: 2026 Crisis Level

The 2026 season was exceptionally severe. NASA reported that June 2026 brought record-high Sargassum quantities to both the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The September 30 outlook, showed that even as the blooms were subsiding seasonally, nearly every monitored region still exceeded the historical 75th percentile for September with coastal inundations were expected to continue through October. 

The threat is not an uninterrupted increase every month. It is a recurring, highly seasonal crisis whose major bloom years have become exceptionally large and dangerous.

A Major Environmental Threat

Sargassum algae growth

Decomposition creates a public health hazard. When algae begin to decay they produce hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) and ammonia. Some stranded masses contain arsenic.

Accumulation of Toxins Sargassum affects aquatic species and their ecosystems by accumulating marine debris, including microplastics, and leaching heavy metals, pesticides, and other pollutants, some of which may be generated from its decomposition.

Coastal oxygen starvation: Dense Sargassum mats block sunlight and interfere with oxygen exchange. As large accumulations decompose, microorganisms consume dissolved oxygen, potentially creating hypoxic conditions. The consequences include Fish and invertebrate deaths, damage to seagrass meadows and coral reefs, smothering of bottom-dwelling marine organisms and obstruction of sea turtle nesting beaches and hatchling access to the sea.

Once healthy coastal ecosystems can experience substantial biological deterioration.

Threat to coastal infrastructure:  Accumulations can clog cooling-water intakes, interfere with desalination systems, and obstruct harbors. For islands dependent on desalination for drinking water, the risks extend beyond tourism and ecological damage.

Threat to Global Tourism

Sargassum Inundation mexico

Brown tides threaten the Florida Keys, Miami-Dade and Atlantic beaches and their tourist economies, as NASA now updates the situation on a daily basis. Florida’s east coast and Keys experienced significant inundations in 2026. 

Mexico’s Caribbean coast is among the world’s most economically vulnerable locations. Repeated inundations threaten the Riviera Maya tourism industry, require extensive beach cleaning, and damage sensitive coastal habitats. Other key tourist areas in the Western Hemisphere include Dominican Republic — Punta Cana, Bávaro and eastern beaches; Barbados, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia and the Grenadines. Reefs, mangroves, fishing grounds and coastal tourism are also at risk in the Western Caribbean. Satellite measurements for September 2026 showed substantial offshore Sargassum in Honduran, Jamaican and Cuban waters.

Across the ocean, West Africa nations such as Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Benin are swamped by 
recurrent brown seaweed masses that disrupt artisanal fishing and coastal livelihoods. 

The inundations not only foul beaches, they threaten near-shore water quality. 

Global sea surface temperatures

Causes: Smells Like Global Warming

Rising ocean temperatures and climate variability

Warming oceans are triggering Sargassum blooms because temperature affects Sargassum growth, survival and distribution. Climate-driven changes in rainfall, ocean circulation and nutrient delivery also influence blooms.

Changing ocean circulation

Equatorial currents, winds and circulating ocean eddies transport and concentrate floating algae. All of these processes have been severely messed up by global warming. These forces help determine whether Sargassum remains offshore or reaches vulnerable coastlines.

Nutrients  for hungry seaweed

Nutrients carried by rivers, including the Amazon and Congo, also stimulate algae growth. Agricultural fertilizers, sewage and other sources of nutrient pollution contribute. Their relative importance varies by region and season, but it’s all driven by human behavior.

Rio Grande crisis mirrors the Southwestern water emergency

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

Elephant Butte Reservoir running on empty >

The largest reservoir in New Mexico is down to 1.4% of capacity. The Middle Rio Grande and southern New Mexico depend on irrigation to sustain agricultural production. The Elephant Butte irrigation system supports farms downstream from the reservoir, including agricultural areas around Las Cruces and the Mesilla Valley. Perennial orchards are especially vulnerable. An annual crop can sometimes be abandoned for a season, but mature trees represent years of investment and may be permanently damaged if water shortages persist.

Elephant Butte Reservoir falls to 1.4% capacity

The Southwest has slow walked into a civilization changing mega crisis

Lake Powell / Mead hit record lows

As of October 17, 2026, the two largest reservoirs on the Colorado River are at critically low levels following decades of drought, rising temperatures and water consumption that has repeatedly exceeded the river’s available supply. The crisis worsened dramatically in 2026 after an exceptionally poor winter snowpack.
The Colorado River supports more than 40 million people, approximately 5.5 million acres of farmland, tribal communities, wildlife and hydroelectric power generation across the American Southwest and Mexico. 

Lake Powell at 22% capacity

Lake Mead at 26% capacity

Rio Grande River runny dry

In August 2026, the National Integrated Drought Information System reported an 82 mile section of the Rio Grande River Valley in New Mexico had dried up amid the severe long term drought.

Us drought monitor

Causes:

  • Runaway planetary and regional warming trends.
  • Declining snowpack
  • Abuse of groundwater supplies by cities, agriculture and recreational interests.

The Rio Grande Crisis: Running Out of Water

The Rio Grande is experiencing a severe water crisis driven by prolonged drought, rising temperatures, declining mountain snowpack, excessive water consumption and competition among agricultural, urban and environmental users. This is particularly troubling because river flow supports cottonwood forests, wetlands, wildlife habitat and groundwater recharge, in addition to human water consumption. 

The crisis extends beyond New Mexico

Entire stretches of the Rio Grande have dried up, while the Elephant Butte Reservoir—one of the river’s principal water-storage facilities—has fallen to 1.4% of capacity. However, the long term water challenge covers extensive areas of the Southwest, including the Colorado River Basin and its two critical reservoirs at Lake Powell and Lake Mead (see right column). Water stored in the international reservoirs of Amistad Reservoir and Falcon Reservoir supports cities and agriculture in southern Texas and northern Mexico. The emergency threatens farms, cities, wildlife and the fragile network of communities that depend on the river on both sides of the US–Mexico border.

 

Ocean acidification approaches the point of no return

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

Ocean acidification reaching dangerous levels 

Ocean acidity driven by long term absorption of CO2

On a human life scale, the effects are irreversible and catastrophic

Ocean acidification is the long-term drop in seawater pH caused by the ocean absorbing excess atmospheric CO₂. 

Since the Industrial Revolution, the surface of the ocean has become roughly 30% more acidic. The rate of change is far faster than previous natural changes documented in the geological record.

Ocean acidification has consequences far beyond the seas 

1. Damage to shell-forming animals: Increasing acidity reduces the availability of carbonate ions that corals, oysters, clams, and some plankton need to build calcium carbonate shells and skeletons. Their shells may grow more slowly or become weaker.

2. Disruption of marine food chains: Tiny marine organisms such as plankton, are affected by acidification. These organisms are food for fish and other animals, so declines in populations can disrupt the entire marine food web.

3. Loss of marine biodiversity: Many species struggle to survive or reproduce under more acidic conditions. 

4. Damage to coral reef ecosystems: Weakened coral growth makes reefs less able to recover from damage. Coral reefs provide habitats for many marine species and protect coastlines from waves and storms.

5. Threats to fisheries and food supplies: Changes in shellfish populations, fish behavior, and marine food webs reduce catches and affect communities that depend on seafood for food and income.

6. Economic losses: Fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism suffer when marine ecosystems become less productive or attractive to visitors.

7. Reduced resilience to other environmental stresses: Acidification can combine with warming oceans, low oxygen levels, and pollution, making it harder for marine organisms to survive environmental changes

 

Super El Niño wreaking havoc ahead of predictions

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

“All of this is a mere preview”

The el Nino climate chaos monster is out of control

The El Niño monster is out of control with temperature anomalies 5.4°F above previous records

As of Sept 23, the world’s oceans have recorded 100 consecutive days of unprecedented heat.

As Autumn begins in the Northern Hemisphere, the El Niño leviathan getting warmed up in the Pacific has already broken every temperature record for previous El Niño events. This cyclical weather phenomenon has far exceeded the highest temperature ever recorded in the Pacific Ocean, several months before it was expected to peak. As of Sept. 10, the world’s oceans recorded 100 consecutive days of unprecedented heat. Although El Niño is not technically a cause of climate change, no credible climate scientist questions whether the collossal  strength of this year’s anomaly is driven by global heating.

NOAA Mid-September data indicates a 5.4° F (3.05C) increase, breaking the previous high set in 2015.

The most recent forecasts predict a peak of 7.2° F for year’s end, a level that is almost incomprehensible in the context of historical data. It’s a factor of 3X greater than the scientific threshold of a “super El Niño.”

When added to the accelerating pace of global warming and the historically elevated temperatures of the ocean, the prospects of 2027 clocking in as the hottest year of all time are a lock in. And with the climate emergency already supercharging violent weather events this year, the impacts on the planet are already apparent. 

Only the beginning

Consensus is that we are actually at the beginning of the most devastating phase of this event. Although the Pacific has already warmed extraordinarily rapidly, NOAA expects El Niño to strengthen further through the autumn and winter. The agency projects a 90% probability of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall/winter.

That means the classic El Niño consequences should be expected and prepared for beginning now:

  • heavy rain and flooding along parts of the Americas,
  • drought across Australia and Southeast Asia,
  • altered monsoons,
  • extreme heat,
  • Pacific tropical cyclones,
  • challenges to fisheries,
  • disruptions to agriculture

Current impact

In late September 2026, the emerging super El Niño is already producing measurable extreme-weather and ecological effects.  El Niño is now strong enough to influence weather patterns, but not every extreme event occurring in 2026 can be attributed to it.

Summer 2026 events

Severe drought and water shortages in Southeast Asia 

Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia are experiencing declining rainfall and water levels. Indonesia has also experienced significant wildfires. The Mekong system is seeing unusually low water levels, affecting agriculture, fisheries and communities dependent on the river.

Wildfires

The combination of heat and reduced rainfall has increased fire danger, particularly in Indonesia/Sumatra.  There are also substantial drought/fire effects in the Caribbean, where Puerto Rico and neighboring areas experienced unusually dry conditions, low stream flows, grass fires and water-supply problems.

Major impacts on Peru’s fisheries

One of the clearest early effects is occurring off Peru, where unusually warm Pacific waters have disrupted the marine ecosystem. Anchovies have moved into deeper, cooler water, and Peru ended its anchovy fishing season early in August. This is economically significant because anchovies are a major source of fishmeal and fertilizer.

Exceptional heat

The developing El Niño is adding heat to an already warming climate. The contiguous United States experienced its warmest June–August on record in 2026, with widespread drought and extreme heat. 

This distinction is important: global warming provides the elevated baseline temperature, while El Niño is now superimposing another source of warming and shifting atmospheric circulation.

5. More powerful and numerous Pacific Cyclones

At the same time, the Pacific is experiencing much more favorable conditions for tropical cyclones. Hurricane Polo reached Category 5 strength off Mexico on September 22, illustrating the contrasting Pacific/Atlantic pattern associated with El Niño.

Flooding and extreme rainfall in parts of the Americas

El Niño shifts the position of the Pacific jet stream and tropical convection, producing drier conditions in some regions and much wetter conditions in others. PAHO reports that drought, flooding, wildfires and food insecurity are already occurring in several countries in the Americas. 

The super El Niño has already shown up in Southeast Asian drought and fires, Caribbean water shortages and fires, disrupted Peruvian fisheries, Pacific tropical-cyclone activity, and an unusually suppressed Atlantic hurricane season. But the event is still intensifying, so the largest global effects are likely to develop during the coming fall and winter of 2026–2.

Graph of daily sea surface temperatures

Global warming provides the current elevated baseline temperature, while El Niño is now superimposing another source of warming and shifting atmospheric circulation.

 

El Nino drives indonesian wildfire
Hot and dry conditions in Indonesia have already spurred record wildfires and fatal levels of air pollution, while India has seen vital monsoon rains curtailed. Drought conditions in Central America and the Caribbean are causing crop losses and a slowdown of trade due to low water levels in the Panama canal. The World Food Programme said in August the impacts of El Niño were likely to push about 50 million people into acute hunger and drive prices up.

Runaway sea level rise: The third factor

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

Global sea-level rise is driven by three major processes.

Unchecks extraction of groundwater for irrigation and industrial use turns out to be an important missing factor in past estimates of sea-level changes. It isn’t good news for the future.

#1 Melting of glaciers and ice sheets ~ 66%

Ice currently on land adds new water to the ocean when it melts or flows into it.

Two major components:

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

  • Greenland loses ice through surface melting and increased glacier discharge into the ocean.
  • In Antarctica, warmer seawater melts floating ice shelves from below. This is negating their restraining effect on glaciers, allowing more land-based ice to flow into the ocean.

Mountain glaciers

  • Glaciers are shrinking on virtually every continent.
  • Meltwater eventually reaches the ocean.
  • Collectively, glaciers make a significant contribution to sea-level rise.

Together, land-ice loss accounts for about two-thirds of global sea-level rise.

Important distinction: Melting floating sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic makes only a small contribution to sea levels rise because it is already floating in the ocean. It is melting land ice that substantially raises sea level.

Global ice sources

Sea Level 101, Part Two: All Sea Level is "Local" - NASA Science

#2 Thermal expansion ~ 33%

As the ocean absorbs heat from global warming, seawater expands. This is called thermal expansion.

  • Water molecules move farther apart as their temperature rises.
  • The amount of water doesn’t increase, but its volume does, pushing the ocean surface upward.
  • The ocean absorbs more than 90% of the excess heat accumulating in Earth’s climate system.
  • Thermal expansion currently accounts for roughly one-third of global sea-level rise.

This process is particularly important because warming penetrates progressively deeper into the ocean.

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#3 Human extraction diverts more water into the oceans ~ 1%

The third process is less obvious: water is transferred between the land and the ocean. Extraction of groundwater for irrigation and home and industrial use is an important missing piece of the puzzle. Until now, it has not been included in estimates for past and current sea-level changes and for projections of future rises
  • Groundwater pumping: water extracted from aquifers for agriculture, cities and industry can eventually reach the ocean.
  • Drainage of wetlands and soils: stored water can be transferred to rivers and ultimately the ocean.
  • Deforestation and changes in precipitation: alter how much water is temporarily stored on land.
This third component is relatively small compared with thermal expansion and land-ice loss, but it matters when scientists construct the complete global sea-level budget.

Human extraction diverts more water into the ocean

Future of a warming planet is reflected in ICE

The words of the prophets are written in ice.

The interaction between global ice stores and climate is a critical factor in understanding what’s happening and what’s going to happen. 

Detailed summary here

Links

CLIMATE FEEDBACK CYCLES  | HISTORIC NEPAL CATASTROPHE

 

 

The Nepal geo catastrophe is a devastating preview of Now

Posted on by rapidclimatechange_tfkjps

THE NEPAL GLACIERS WILL FLOOD AGAIN. AND SO WILL HUNDREDS OF OTHERS.

This Himalayan mega catastrophe is one extreme incident in a global warming trend that also includes permafrost thaw (and its stunning consequences) in the Arctic, Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) across all Alpine regions and the literal destabilization of entire Swiss mountainsides, leading to rock slides that take out entire villages in first world nations.

Hundreds are dead and thousands are missing in Nepal killer landslide

A 160 Ft high wall of mud, water and debris crashing down the valley at 45 MPH. Think about that.

DEATH TOLL: 1,280 | MISSING: 5,620

The staggering scale of the deadly collapse of Himalayan mountain glacier and rock is getting plenty of media attention, primarily because of the dramatic destruction-and-death visuals that draw humans to their screens. Unfortunately, the epic scope of planetary heating’s role in these events is underplayed in most reporting as corporate media remains timid about realistically engaging with an uncomfortable topic. The connection with related trends and events in other parts of the world is largely missing.

This mega disaster was caused by global warming

Strictly speaking, this specific glacial flood can’t be directly attributed to global warming in terms of formal cause and effect. The immediate trigger was the collapse of glacier, rock and ice on the north slope of Langtang Lirung, which generated a huge debris flow followed by catastrophic flooding downstream. Nevertheless, there is virtually no question that planetary heating and its amplified effect at higher altitudes made the overall mountain environment unstable. This is a particularly alarming iteration of a complex global phenomenon. It’s all about the ice (see below). 

The key take-away is: this is not an isolated incident. It is not a one time event. Similar scenarios have increasing in frequency in mountainous regions everywhere. Each year brings more GLOFs, rock slides and collapses with magnified catastrophic results. 

The Nepal disaster was a cascade of climate-sensitive occurrences:

1. Global warming is shrinking and destabilizing Himalayan glaciers.
The Himalayas are warming rapidly. Glaciers have been losing mass, exposing rock and altering the stresses acting on mountain slopes. The Langtang region has experienced particularly substantial glacier loss, also called glacial retreat.

160 ft wall of water sweeps down Himalayan pass

The floods that devastated a hundred mile long area in Nepal were the end result of a chain reaction that originated high in the Himalayas.  A massive landslide in an upstream mountain pass wiped out a large chunk of land and glacial ice. The event caused the energy equivalent of a 5.2 earthquake, registered on seismographs around the globe. Thousands of people will die.

2. Permafrost is thawing.
At high elevations, ice within fractured rock acts like cement. When temperatures rise, that ice melts and water penetrates the cracks. The result is a progressive weakening of cliffs and mountainsides. Scientists investigating the August 26 collapse specifically point to melting permafrost and glacier retreat as contributors.

3. Weakened slopes suddenly fail.
At Langtang Lirung, a huge section of rock and ice apparently collapsed. The material crashed into the valley and river system, creating an enormous debris flow.

4. The debris flow transformed into a catastrophic flood.
The avalanche of rock and ice temporarily obstructed waterways and sent enormous quantities of water, mud and boulders downstream. River levels reportedly rose by as much as 30 feet in about 30 minutes.

..

THIS IS NOT AN ISOLATED INCIDENT

Rapid warming is changing the historically frozen ground and glaciers that helped stabilize Alpine slopes.

A major 2026 scientific study of 8,607 climate-related landslides in the eastern Himalayas found a striking pattern: the annual volume of landslides at elevations above 10,000 feet increased fivefold over the previous three decades. Incidents of landslides and rock falls have been migrating upward as glaciers retreat and permafrost melts.

Another study modeling landslide processes in the northern Himalayas estimated that, during 1991–2019, landslides were driven by a combination of rainfall (~38%), permafrost thaw (~33%), and glacier/snow melt (~29%). The researchers project that future warming will increase landslide triggering, through increased rainfall and permafrost thaw.

The ice goeth, Man: The mostly unknown consequences of global ice collapse

Siberia Emissions doubled in 10 Years

Arctic perma (?) frost thaw

THE GLOBAL EFFECTS OF PERMAFROST THAW IN ARCTIC REGIONS are numerous and underreported. The region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet.

1. Methane release from beneath the once frozen tundra of Arctic regions has doubled in the past ten years. The powerful greenhouse gas had been trapped; now it isn’t. This phenomenon is driving one of the most powerful and probably irreversible climate feedbacks.

2. Collapsing infrastructure: The very ground beneath our mukluks has become unstable as buildings, roads and other infrastructure built on once solid ground fails. In places, grasslands are becoming wobbly as the substrate melts. 

3. Megaslump craters blasting out all over. These wacky formations (also known as thaw slumps) are not new, but suddenly they are growing and multiplying in Siberia. Megaslumps include land formations such as the ever-expanding Hell’s Gate crater in Siberia and thermotarga landscapes.

4. What lurks below? Permanently frozen environments are natural reservoirs for microorganisms, including viruses, bacteria and humans pathogens. It is not currently considered likely that dangerous microbes such as smallpox are about to be released into the world, but there is no question that dormant viruses will be emerged as the Arctic continues to heat up. There was indeed an anthrax outbreak in Siberia in 2016.  The trigger of the outbreak was ascribed to the activation of spores as permafrost thaw was accelerated during the summer heat wave of that year.

Thawing mountain threatens Swiss village

Increased rock slides on destabilized mountainsides as ice “glue” melts.

The exceptionally hot summer of 2026 in the Alps has been marked by a record number of rockfalls, – some of them fatal – with a large majority attributable to the climate crisis.  The cause is the rapid thaw of the ice or glue embedded in the rock face of mountains, which has held the slopes secure for millennnia. This year is on pace to smash existing records, both frequency of rockfalls and the sheer volume of rock breaking away from the mountains on an almost daily basis. The total is expected to hit 450 events. A few decades ago, the expected number was a few dozen. Link here for more.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods increase globally, threatening civilization downstream 

Following the initial disaster, two more glacial lakes formed in Nepal, near the source of the ice-rock avalanche that triggered flooding 

GLOFs are not new, but their incidence in ticking up as Alpine regions destabilize. This includes regions from Pakistan to Alaska to Europe.As glaciers retreat. the lakes as their end points expand behind moraine barricades or dams. When they fail, they release hundreds of billions of gallons of water, carrying rock and debris as they cascade down valleys and passes. Virtually every glacier on the planet is melting, most very rapidly. For example, glacial lake flood outbursts have become an annual event near Juneau Alaska.