TAJIKISTAN TOXIC STORMS DRIVEN BY WARMING AND POLLUTION

NOTHING TO SEE HERE…REALLY

 

Health Emergency In Dushanbe

It’s not that sand storms in semi-arid Tajikistan are new, it’s that there are now 10 times as many events as a few decades ago, they are more violent, the season lasts much longer and the fine particles are more deadly to humans. They were rare in the nineties, but now afflict the capital of Dushanbe 30 to 40 times a year.

The most obvious cause is the heat-driven extended drought that is drying out Central Asia. The effects are most dramatically seen in the collapse of the once magnificent Aral Sea to the northwest. The other part of the climate component is that winds are becoming more powerful, lifting more soil into the air and carrying it farther, and making the air borne particles more destructive.

Worse, the airborne particles are also composed of salt and toxins that damage lungs over time. For Tajikistani citizens, the health toll is becoming alarming, as these fine particles infiltrate and destroy lung tissues. In Dushanbe, air quality and visibility has reached the level of an ongoing emergency  

Yet another contributing factor is less obvious: not only do these toxic storms impact agriculture,  they speed alpine glacier melt, which historically provides what little fresh water is available to farmers.  

 

HURRICANE OTIS: THE LATEST EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION

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The hurricane that devastated Acapulco last week is getting little attention as Gaza, Ukraine and “As The Donald Turns” divert the attention span of corporate media. Nevertheless, this particular climate disaster highlights the realities of the new normal in hurricane and cyclone behavior.

The aftermath of this Category 5 monster storm looks much like any of several other recent extreme weather episodes.  The event left hundreds of thousands of Mexicans in the resort city of about 1 million in dire straits, with little hope of any kind of timely relief for the underclasses.  About 250,000 homes were completely destroyed and the final death toll will be in the hundreds. The city was flooded, homes, hotels and businesses were destroyed, vehicles were tossed about and submerge (Don’t worry, the tourist center will be restored ASAP).

Driven by preternaturally warm waters, the 165 MPH winds speeds were second only to the record smashing 200 MPH gales of Hurricane Patricia, which struck further north in western Mexico in 2015. Patricia was the first storm to really grab the attention of climate scientists as it went from about 100 MPH to 200 MPH in a day. Patricia received little coverage because it hit a sparsely populated area, so there were no good photos.

HOW EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION WORKS

(Not your grandfather’s hurricane)

Although this phenomenon began to alarm climate scientists several years ago, Otis took authorities by surprise as it blew up from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 monster in 24 hours. In the nine hours before landfall, Otis’s sustained winds  went from 90 to 165 MPH. This dynamic is known as rapid intensification and it is increasingly common. It is technically defined as escalation in wind speed of 35 MPH in 24 hours; Otis increased roughly three times that fast, ambushing authorities and hindering evacuation.

If you think of hot water as HURRICANE FUEL, it’s easy to understand how globally warming waters are driving the new breed of hurricanes. Warmer water means more energy is available to the storm system. This is true of extreme weather on land as well, as “thunderstorms” cause more and more wind damage and flooding.

The less obvious factor driving intensification is the DEPTH of the warm water in the upper layers of the oceans. “Legacy” hurricanes were self-moderating  in the good old days, because the storm would churn the upper layers as it moved over them, bringing up cooler waters below and causing  a cooling near the surface. This process lowers the overall energy of the storm. With warmer waters extending deeper in many areas of the ocean, this scenario is no longer in effect, and hurricanes explode in power rather than diminish.

Earlier this year, Atlantic Hurricane Lee blew the doors off with a display of rapid intensification that saw its increase wind speed by 85 MPH in 24 hours as it moved through record warm waters.  Luckily Lee moved north into cooler waters before it made landfall. In 2008, the incredibly destructive, 1,000 mile wide Hurricane Ike displayed similar behavior before it hit the Texas coast, killing hundreds and causing billions in damage.

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And Other Very Bad News


10 BILLION SNOW CRAB DIE OFF IN THE EAST BERING SEA

A new research report confirms that rapidly warming waters triggered the mass die-off of billions of Alaskan snow crabs.  The collapse pf the population is linked to a marine heat wave that occurred in the region between 2019 and 2021.  Prevailing theory is that the warming waters elevated the crabs’ metabolism, causing them to die of starvation. $ Billions will be lost, and a large percentage of the fishing businesses are expected to declare bankruptcy.

HURRICANE OTIS INTENSIFIES TO CAT 5 IN RECORD TIME

The hurricane, which made landfall near Acapulco on Wednesday morning as a Category 5, intensified by about 110 mph in just 24 hours. Rapidly warming oceans are making storms more powerful and difficult to predict. This record breaking storm surpassed Hurricane Patricia (2015), which was the first to shock climate scientists in terms of rapid intensification.

MASS DOLPHIN DIE OFF IN THE AMAZON AS RIVER WATERS HIT 102 °F

Hundreds of pink river dolphins are dying in the Amazon Basin as record temperatures and an extended drought take their toll on the intensively threatened ecosystem. The immediate cause is attributed to extreme temperatures in Lake Tefé, measured in excess of 102 °F.

The Amazon region contains about 20% of the world’s fresh water, but most rivers are now becoming impassable as water levels drop.

TIP OF THE ICEBERG: CONSEQUENCES EXTEND FAR BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS


The Swiss Academy of Sciences has documented a more rapid collapse of Alpine glaciers over the past two years, an acceleration equal to the entire volume lost from 1960 to 1990. That stat is based on a decline of 4% this past summer and 6% in 2022, the worst year ever. The cause of course is record high temps and record low snowfall. 

Europe’s glaciers had already lost about half of their volume in the past century. 

Swiss scientists have stopped measuring many glaciers, simply because they are essentially gone. Matthias Huss of the Glacier Monitoring Switzerland organization (GLAMOS) predicts that only about one third of the mountain nation’s glaciers will make the long haul even if the imaginary international 1.5C target. 

This is more than just bad news for the Alpine tourist industry. Yes, glacier retreat does threaten local economies based on ski resorts, climbers and hikers (the death toll for hikers is climbing as glaciers collapsed). But water from melting glaciers is also essential to the fresh water supply of Europe and the ability of major waterways to provide transportation. Shipping on the essential Rhine River has been restricted in 2022 and 2023 because of low water levels. 

Alpine glacial runoff also irrigates crops and cools nuclear plants. The emerging pattern is insidious: First there is more water, then there is no water. Glaciers produce more meltwater in the early stages of rapid melt, then it is gone.

Almost a side show (albeit potentially deadly), newly formed lakes are growing to bursting behind moraine dams, creating Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), which endanger mountain villages downstream when the dam collapses.

Finally, as previously reported, as ice melts in the very rocks that form the mountain structure, the frozen “glue” that keeps it all together is thawing permanently (similar to crumpling permafrost in the Arctic). The imminent danger of entire mountains disintegrating into rock slides is driving evacuations of places such as Brienz, Switzerland, which was abandoned just prior to a mammoth rock avalanche that nearly destroyed the canton in June.

Glaciers

CONSIDER THIS SUMMER YOUR CLIMATE EMERGENCY ANNOUCEMENT

It’s really here and you are on your own

Summer 2023 was the hottest month planet wide in 120,000 years

This is the hottest summer endured by human civilization, but the context is even more alarming. In a nutshell, during the La Nina cycle that just ended, the planet recorded the eight hottest years on record. But La Nina is associated with a cooling cycle. With El Nino just beginning, there is really no telling what will transpire.

Salt water entering New Orleans water supply

Emergency declaration as extended drought pushes salt water into Mississippi River estuary

Both the state of Louisiana and the City of New Orleans have issued emergence declarations as the city that should not be there acknowledged the threat to its drinking water supply. Saltwater from the Gulf is entering the river due to drought-driven low water levels. 

For those who rely on the Mississippi River for drinking water, the saltwater intrusion is a potential health risk, as high concentrations of salt in drinking water may cause people to develop increased blood pressure and corrode drinking water infrastructure.

Halifax sees lethal flooding in “Biblical” event

10″ of rain in 24 hours  kills four in “under the radar” disaster

Halifax and Nova Scotia did not make the news in August when an extreme storm smacked into the city and surrounding area, but the resulting flooding 

“We need to understand that all of these things are pounding away at our infrastructure, at our roads and our culverts. So even though we get past one event, it might be a hurricane and then we have the fire and then we have the rain. They’re all taking an impact on infrastructure.”

Mike Savage, Halifax mayor. infrastructure, just like ourselves, is being pounded by cumulative weather events,’ Halifax mayor says.

September 2023 hottest ever

Following the warmest summer ever recorded, September continues the alarming trend
This month will be recorded as the hottest September ever recorded planet wide according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. It ties and most likely exceeds that record set in 2016.
“The dog days of summer are not just barking, they are biting. Climate breakdown has begun.

António GuterresUN Secretary-General 

Scientists say the extreme heat  contributed to this summer’s epic ocean storms, wildfires, flooding, and droughts. In North America and Europe, such heat would have been “virtually impossible” had humans not warmed the planet with fossil fuel emissions.

12,000+ Dead In Libyan Storm Onslaught

“People are using shovels to get the bodies from underneath the ground, they are using their own hands. They all say it’s like doomsday.”

 

A Mediterranean cyclone brought 16 inches of rain in 24 hours to eastern Libya, driving a ten foot tsunami wall that destroyed dams, bridges and infrastructure in the process of setting a new rainfall record. This is more than a year’s rainfall in a place so dry that no permanent river runs through it. Storm Daniel is a Medicane,, a term coined to describe the increasingly violent weather impacting the regions as the globe heats

 

Around 10,000 more are missing and 30,000 displaced in Derna, a city of 100,000. Many are believed swept out to sea or buried in rubble..

Antarctic Ice Melting Even Faster Than predicted.

The size of ice volume lost this year in Antarctica is about the area of Argentina

Antarctica is likely warming at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world and faster than climate change models are predicting, with potentially far-reaching implications for global sea level rise, according to a scientific study.

In West Antarctica, a region considered particularly vulnerable to warming with an ice sheet that could push up global sea levels by several metres if it collapsed, the study found warming at twice the rate suggested by climate models.

Climate scientists have long expected that polar regions would warm faster than the rest of the planet – a phenomenon known as polar amplification – and this has been seen in the Arctic.

Hurricane Lee is the latest example of how heating waters drive rapid intensification.

Hurricane Lee Is A Record Breaking Monster 

In spite of the fact that it will not likely be newsworthy, this kind of rapid intensification is the new normal-ish 
In it’s early incarnation, Hurricane Lee went from 80MPH to 165 MPH (Cat 5) winds in 24 hours, the third fastest intensification on record. The storm has stayed mostly in the ocean and will therefore not get the kind of coverage it warrants. Sooner or later one of these will come ashore.
Hurricane Lee’s wind field expanded Thursday, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center, with  tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 350 miles.

Irony of the Year: Fertile Crescent No Longer Fertile

“The Fresh Water is Finished”

The “cradle of civilization” is drying rapidly, driving inhabitants from their ancestral lands between the Tigris and Euphrates. Locals once lived self-sufficient lives in the  Iraq Marshlands, making traditional livings fishing and herding Water Buffalo. The epicenter of the slo-mo disaster is the city of Basra, once known as the Venice of the East. About 40% of Iraq has already been overtaken by sand.

Canada Wildfires Move North As 20,000 Evacuated

With hundreds of wildfires already sweeping through BC and Quebec, Canada’s worst wildfire season just got worse as the disaster moves into the Northwest Territories.  In Yellowknife, a mandatory evacuation order went into effect creating a chaotic scene as long lines of cars queued for miles to flee along the only road out of town.

Killer Sandstorm + All Time Record High For Morocco 

Panic and death as skies turns orange in capital city
A popular tourist destination, the Mediterranean nation registered a new record high of 122°F in mid-August as a lethal sand storm swept through Marakesh, driven by 70 MPH winds. At least one person was killed. 

Firestorms in Maui kill hundreds 

Hawaii’s Worst Disaster In History:
Hundreds are dead or missing as hurricane force winds ignited drought stricken fields, forests and neighborhoods. The historic seaside town of Lahaina has been reduced to ash and thousands were evacuated. Desperate tourists ran into the ocean to escape the flames.

Thwaites “Doomsday” Ice Shelf Melts From Below

Dubbed the Doomsday Glacier because of it’s potential to raise sea levels around the world very rapidly, the Thwaite’s ice shelf in West Antarctic is melting from below. Ice shelves are hybrid formations that float on land and help slow the flow of trillions of tons of land ice to the ocean.

Sri Lanka all time heat record August

Endless record heat in Sri Lanka with a new August record pulverized at Ratnapura today with 37.2C Record heat is also in the Philippines (Tmins >29C),Vietnam and Thailand In just 10 days of August about 1/3 of world countries broke heat records, while only Italy had low records.

Scary South America Winter Temps Setting Records

102°F is plenty hot any day most places, but it’s winter in South America and the town of Vicuna, Chile is roasting. And Vicuna is in the Andes Mountains.  For perspective, think of August in South America as the equivalent of February in North America. 

“South America is living one of the extreme events the world has ever seen,” weather historian Maximiliano Herrera tweeted, adding, “This event is rewriting all climatic books.”

Global emissions continue to climb

The most recent widely ignored warning from climate scientists would be worrisome if anyone was listening. Greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, threatening to push the world into “unprecedented” levels of global heating, scientists have warned. Levels of the big three greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane ( CH4)  and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere, continued  unprecedented rates of growth during 2022. CO2  alone increased by nearly 1%, driven in part by switchovers to goal as Russia squeezed the global supply of methane.

Under the radar killer dirt storm in Illinois

The storm came suddenly on a clear cool day and hit the travelers on interstate 55 near Springfield, IL by surprise. The 200 ft high wall of soil blinded drivers, turning the day into utter darkness and sending 84 speeding vehicles crashing into each other. Some caught fire and burned on the highway. The death toll was seven, with vehicles and bodies burned beyond recognition. This is a global warming event, driven by drought and unenlightened industrial ag practices.

Italy smashed by record heat, fires, floods & glacier collapse

The collapse of a glacier in the Dolomites and a landslide on the island of Ischia. Devastating floods, wildfires and record-breaking heatwaves. The worst drought of the Po, Italy’s longest river, in 200 years. Luca Mercalli, an Italian climatologist, has seen his fair share of extreme weather events in Italy within the past two years. But nothing prepared him for the scene in Mortegliano, a small town in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, the northern region bordering Slovenia.

Salt water incursion threatens açaí crop, Amazon

The climate emergency combined with industrial agriculture in coastal Amazonia are threatening açaí harvests in Brazil’s Macapa region. Soil erosion and the creep of seawater into the freshwater river are changing the berries’ flavor and tainting drinking water.  

Seawater began pushing back the river around the delta island  archipelago in late 2021, leaving thousands of residents without fresh water.

Record low ice levels in Antarctic winter ice melt

A sharp winter slowdown in Antarctic sea ice growth has added another slo mo catastrophe to the list of climate driven threats. Current levels show a shortfall that is radically rewriting the record books.

Speaking to the New York Times in early August, Ted Scambos (a senior research scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder) said: “This year is really different. It’s a very sudden change.”

When sea ice collapses, the trillions of tons of land ice behind it accelerates its flow into the Southern Ocean, raising seas planetwide. The sea ice also plays a role in regulating ocean and air temperatures, potentially affecting marine life from microscopic plankton to the continent’s iconic penguins.0

Massive rockslide threatening village as alpine “ice glue” melts


TWO MILLION CUBIC YARDS OF ROCK AND DIRT are about to crash down on the village of Brienz in Switzerland’s eastern Alps. The town’s remaining inhabitants have been evacuated in anticipation of the imminent collapse, which is predicted for the next week or so. Authorities had considered construction of a retaining wall to protect the village, but the project was rejected based on calculations that the structure would have to be over 225 feet* high.

Although this is a relatively minor, localized event (unless you live in Brienz) it is a sample of a larger physical destabilization of mountain regions around the world. Just as rapid permafrost thaw is compromising the very foundation of Arctic infrastructure, the heating of the planet’s alpine regions is dissolving crevasse ice that is the very “glue” that holds the mountaintops together. Geologists have measured stunning temperature increases as deep as 20 ft into the rock, with an uptick of around 1°F over the past decade.

With mountain structure weakened, the increase in extreme storms magnifies and accelerates the process of breaking down the slopes, further threatening lives and property.

This impending disaster will be another example of a troubling trend gaining traction in the upper altitudes of the planet, driven by the effects of global warming.

In particular, the spectacular phenomenon known as Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) has emerged as a dramatic threat to alpine populations and infrastructure. New lakes form as glaciers melt more quickly behind natural moraine dams, eventually breaching the earthen barrier, or in many cases, destroying it in a violent outburst. When this happens, huge quantities of water rush downhill, sweeping away everything in their path. According to a study in Nature magazine, GLOF events threaten upwards of 15 million people globally. Since 1990, the number of glacial lakes has increased by over 50%.  

This pattern in turn is a component of the longer term predictions for South Asia’s “Third Pole” which will have a long term adverse effect on fresh water supplies over a vast area in Asia. Also known as High Mountains Asia, the extensive mountain ranges in this region provide fresh water for over a billion people. This crisis is currently masked by the fact that meltwater is actually creating more and larger glacier lakes, which provide a temporary benefit of the more water available for humans and agriculture.

The growth of these lakes brings an ever increasing risk of floods, both in the form of GLOF and also less dramatic events.

However, when this phase of the cycle is over (10 years?), the glaciers will be gone, and the billions downstream will be in dire straits. This process will manifest itself unevenly, with regions in the south experiencing large scale water shortages in the near future. This region is warming about twice the global rates, with increases estimated at .8°F per decade.

 

 

 State of Emergency as record heat waves and fires sweep Tar Sands area.

 

A 92°F temperature reading does not immediately leap off the page (compared to for example, the 104°F temperatures baking Western Europe) until you look at its location 550 miles north of the US border; then ponder the fact that it’s only mid-May. Record heat and tinderbox conditions are continuing this week in Alberta’s oil patch, otherwise known as the Tar Sands. 30,000 citizens have been evacuated in a weather pattern scenario similar to the lethal 2019 runaway fires in Australia. Dozens of heat records have been broken in the past week.

Ironically, in 2016 Fort McMurray was ravaged by a firestorm known as the Beast, a now forgotten mega disaster from which the city has not fully recovered. That evacuation involved 80,000 people.

The role this horror-show extraction site plays in creating these conditions is almost literary in its irony. The local environmental devastation wreaked by the Tar Sands is well documented, including poisoning of fresh water supplies, destruction of wetlands and irresponsible disposal of mining waste. The Athabasca River Basin and its inhabitants will never recover.

On a larger scale, this massive strip mining operation is the source of the dirty crude bitumen that has caused permanent damage in large scale pipeline spills, including 1 million gallons spewed into the Kalamazoo River in 2010 from the Enbridge pipeline.

Remember that? Didn’t think so.

The current fire and heat disaster around Ft. McMurray has cut as much as 5% of Canada’s oil production, which is a dirty shame.

Literally, a dirty shame.

 

Spain hits 104°F as water supplies evaporate

The summer climate disaster season has already begin in Western Europe, as temperatures set new records across the region n and extreme drought continues.

Catalonia’s 7.7 million residents in the northeast of Spain have already endured 32 months of drought, with reservoirs now running dry. Without serious rainfall, the area will enter a drought emergency in the Fall.

Temperatures also skyrocketed across parts of Portugal, Morocco and Algeria in the last week of April.

Turkmenistan methane emissions described as mind boggling 

Satellite images show stunning methane leaks from Turkmenistan’s two main fossil fuel fields.  The data produced by Kayrros for the Guardian leaked 2.6m tonnes of methane in 2022, with the eastern field emitting 1.8m tonnes. The CH4 leaks are estimated to be equivalent to 366m tonnes of CO2, more than the UK’s annual emissions. Methane is anywhere from 25 to 30 times  more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2.

Sudden ocean warming seems to accelerate glacier collapse in Greenland

Northwest Greenland’s Peterman glacier is melting far more rapidly than previously thought, which will increase the rate of sea level rise, which will increase the rate of glacier melt. The new study was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by researchers at NASA and the University of California Irvine. As ocean tides become rapidly warmer, the ice shelves that hold back land ice melt faster.

Global ocean temperatures have spiked dangerously in the past month and a half

Enter El Niño

Sorry to distract from the $250,000,000 Royal Coronation but it is worth noting global ocean temperatures have spiked dangerously in the past month and a half. Scientists are calling the ongoing increase in global ocean temperatures “unprecedented,” as a new unexplained anomaly produces graphs that are way out of the norm. (See graph)

Known as the OISST (Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature) the current report is comprised of data collated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)  satellites and buoys. The report charts record breaking temperatures skating far higher than any previous year. This is truly a much more serious problem than seems obvious at first, for several reasons.

  • The first is that the ocean may well have reached its limit for absorbing excess atmospheric heat.
  • The second is that El Nino seem to be returning.
  • The third is that warmer oceans mean expanding ocean volume, which also contributes to sea level rise.

Ocean heat saturation

The ocean has been absorbing excess heat from global warming for decades, but all evidence now points to this process being at an end. And that means air and ground temperatures are poised for bad things to happen to humans.  Let’s be clear, the global climate catastrophe is much much further along than most people understand. This includes joe citizen who understands that this is a “real” problem, but things someone will take care of it before it’ s too late. Maybe Elon Musk or George Soros.

The big El Niño thing

This is simple and scary: the Pacific has been in an extended  La Niña cycle, which is a natural cyclical phenomenon that tends to cool the planet. In spite of that, the last eight years have been the warmest on record. So in a sense, La Niña has been disguising the meta effects of global warming. But that’s about to be over.

It bears rephrasing: Even with a cooling cycle in place for the past eight years, the planet has continued to set global records for average atmospheric temperatures.

Expanding ocean volume: sea levels

News reports tend to focus on polar ice melting as a contributor because it is an obvious cause and effect scenario.

But thermal expansion of trillions and trillions of gallons of sea water in the planet’s oceans actually contributes more to sea level rise as the waters heat up. It’s basic physics: every substance swells (increases it’s volume) when heated. There is nothing that is going to turn this around anytime soon.

 

Millions of Fish Deprived of Oxygen In NSW Disaster

Millions of fish washed up dead and stinking in the  southeastern the New South Wales outback about 400 miles from Sydney. The mass die-off was caused by a combination of oxygen deprived flood waters and an extended heat wave.  

The contaminated water is adjacent to the pumping station in the town of Menindee. 

This mass die-off is the latest in a pattern of events reported on the Darling-Baaka River in recent weeks, including one in late February. An extended drought, punctuated by catastrophic flooding also caused mass kills in 2018 and 2019. 

 

 

 

 

 

CHILE: DEVASTATION SECOND ONLY TO “THE FIRESTORM YEAR”

Extreme heat and an ongoing megadrought are spawning lethal fires in the middle and south of Chile. The fires have torched more than 1,000 sq. miles ((667,000 acres) and killed dozens of people. Satellites show vast plumes of smoke drifting out over the Pacific. As of Feb 5 there were 275 fires.

Temperatures in the Central Valley have been sustained at record levels of 104°F, driven by strong winds, exacerbating an extended drought that made the past decade the warmest and driest in the region’s history.  The megadrought is responsible for an ongoing water crisis as well.

The region is home to Chile’s forest plantations, which contribute to the available fuel for the fires. So far, this fire season is second only to 2017 in terms of acres burned: the 2017 season is known as the fire storm year. As of early February, scientists are estimating 4 million tons of CO2 have been spewed into the atmosphere.

 

MUDSLIDES KILL 36 IN PERU

Torrential rains have caused lethal mudslides in Peru, with damage made worse by mining practices in the region.

NEW ZEALAND SMASHED BY FLASH FLOODS

Like many many places around the planet, Auckland, NZ is poorly prepared to face what is coming, some of which arrived spectacularly beginning Jan 27. Record rainfall brought a summer’s worth of rain in a three day onslaught, driving lethal flooding, major infrastructure damage, power and water outages and evacuations

 

Drought-Driven Somalia/Ethiopia Starvation

Millions of people in Somalia, Ethiopia and the greater Horn of Africa are on the verge of starvation. The country is bracing for its second famine since 2011 and many predict it will be worse than the last. A two-year drought has devastated crops leaving herders without food to feed their animals.