Managed Retreat From The Coast: Mexico vs San Francisco.

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San Francisco Will Close Coastal Highway…

Rapidly rising sea levels are driving San Francisco’s decision to close a mile of the Great Highway – its iconic coastal road – in a high profile move known these days as “managed retreat.” The asphalt sections that comprise the roadway have crumbled so many times due to extreme storms and rising tides that it has been deemed no longer possible to maintain the highway.

More threatening than the crumbling road itself is a 14-foot-wide major sewer pipe running under the roadway that carries wastewater to a nearby treatment facility. If this is not dealt with, it is only a matter of time before a major spill.

The ocean in this area is expected to rise 1 – 2 feet in the next three decades. The City is also planning projects to protect flood prone tech headquarters and the airport, which sticks out into the Bay like a sore thumb.

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…But Mexican Resort Region Not Quite Ready to Face the Inevitable

A thousand miles southeast, resorts on the Caribbean coast of Mexico face a similar existential challenge.  Rising sea levels and unprecedented storm events threaten Quintana Roo’s coastline, known for its white sand beaches. The 700-mile coast of Mexico’s Quintana Roo has been eroding at a rate of 4 ft a year, with up to 16 feet a year washing away in some sections. Beaches are disappearing, maintained artificially with sand dredged from the sea bottom and transported to the coast. As beaches disappear, the sea moves in to create scenes of waves breaking against the walls of swimming pools, restaurants and houses.

In addition to the ongoing erosion of the beaches, warming seas and changes to ocean chemistry are driving a mass incursion of nasty algal blooms. Ten ft high mounds of rotting black seaweed often greet tourists on the resort strip, an emperor’s new clothes scenario that few want to discuss…especially the corporate owners of new resort properties.

Many long time residents on the coast understand that the writing is on the wall, but, as is the case with climate emergency everywhere, most are holding on in the hope that the situation will reverse itself.

But it won’t.

In the meantime, hundreds of places around the planet have concluded that pulling back from the coast is far more sensible and realistic than attempting to fight the inevitable with extraordinarily expensive concrete and steel infrastructure projects that are ultimately doomed to failure.

 

As the futility of fighting sea level rise around the planet slowly begins to sink in, we are following high profile projects in Virginia, New York, Louisiana and the United Kingdom.

 

 

Unprecedented Escalation of Middle Eastern Sand Storms

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Tens of $ Billions Price Tag for Healthcare and Damage

Iraq Nearly Shut Down In May 2022

An increase in global warming driven sand storms in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia has closed airports, schools, and government offices and sent thousands to the hospital with respiratory issues.  The monster storms cover an area from Dubai to Damascus with biting sand particles swirling down from an apocalyptic orange sky. The region has been in a growing drought for more than a decade as hotter, drier conditions are forecast to continue and worsen.

As is the case with most climate driven events, the sand storm blitz is also exacerbated by other human activities especially unwise management of agriculture.

Just as droughts, violent storms and floods are not new, sand storms have long been a naturally occurring phenomenon in this part of the world. But the frequency and intensity are rising significantly, far outside any natural cycle.

The World Bank estimates health costs alone in excess of $13 billion, with hidden costs such as equipment failure an cleanup largely unaccounted for. Climate scientists call these storms unprecedented, with occurrences up to three times more frequent than long established averages. Officials predict that the current level of 272 “dust days” per year will increase to over 300 by mid- century.

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Climate Shocks From Spain to New Mexico

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Record May Heatwave in Spain 107F (42C)

Much of southern and central Spain is experiencing record May temperatures as temperatures near 105°F. The region from Andalusia in the south, Extremadura in the south-west and Madrid, Castilla La Mancha and Aragon in the north-east. is 15 to 20° Fahrenheit above normal. In many places, overnight temperatures topped  77°F degrees Celsius (25C) which is practically unheard of in the peninsula in May. Across the Straits of Gibraltar, Morocco reports 117°F on May 21.

 

New Mexico’s Largest Wildfire in History Continues to burn

Some residents of northeastern New Mexico have not be able to return to their homes for weeks. Their lives are likely to be changed for the foreseeable future and may never return to normal. The Calf Canyon fire continues to grow and has torched 311,252 acres as of late May a month after it started. Thousands of people have been evacuated.

What Do You Mean We’re Out Of Mustard?

Another one of those goodies that are going to be hard to come by as warming temperatures are already causing problems with the harvest. Production for Dijon Mustard seed, one of France’s most iconic food products, is down 50% in both France and Canada, two key growing areas. Many supermarket shelves in France are empty shelves with global shortages predicted for later in the year. Prices are expected to increase 75%.  The Burgundy region is also experiencing trouble with grape production, also attributed to global warming-driven temperatures and extreme weather. 

Lake Mead and Lake Powell Hit Record Lows

The two largest sources of fresh water in the Southwest have hit new lows as authorities curtail releases from the Colorado River. It is going to be a tough summer in LA, Phoenix and Vegas. But then, it was all predictable, wasn’t it?

 

 Indian Wheat Harvest Threated By Simultaneous Heat (120F) and Flooding

While a huge swathe of India bakes under record-breaking heat, the vast country’s northeast is being devastated by floods. Beginning in March, torrential rains smashed into Assam and Arunachal Pradesh last week, triggering floods and mudslides that have washed away houses, fields of crops and bridges.

500,000 people have been displaced in the Northeast of the country with countless dead not yet reported. A statement from climate activist Licypriya Kangujam sums it up: “People don’t have drinking water, there’s limited food in stock, all forms of communications have been cut off and we don’t have any means of transportation as all the roads have been washed away by floods and landslides”

 

 

How Long Will South Asia Be Livable?

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South Asia

 

“Scientific American is using the term “ASTONISHING.”

India and Pakistan are projected as moving into hot future that may not allow human habitation.

NOW!!!

Wildfires: Human Tragedy in New Mexico and Arizona 

The town of Las Vegas, NM is the epicenter for a historic emergency. With nearly 200,000 acres torched, high winds and historic dry conditions make fire fighting extremely challenging. In Arizona, hundreds of people have been evacuated.

Raging fires in New Mexico prompt critical warnings - ABC News

According to some scientific reports, the forests may not grow back, certainly not as they were before in the Santa Fe National Forest. More here.

More on Arizona fire tragedies.

Sandstorms Smash Into Iraqi Cities

A man with respiratory problems is treated at a hospital in Baghdad, Iraq, during a dust storm (5 May 2022)

Seventh sandstorm in a month send thousands to hospitals.Dust storms are part of the landscape in this part of the world, but the frequency and severity is increasing steadily each year.  More here.

 

 

 

The body begins to cook itself at temperatures in this range

­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­Successive late April / early May heatwaves in northwestern of India and Pakistan are yet another history making extreme climate event, with some areas reaching122.5°F.

Both nations verified their highest average temperatures on record in the past week, with Delhi reaching 113°F; the previous month was the hottest March on record. In Pakistan’s Sindh province, Jacobabad hit 120°F on Saturday April 30 and Nawabshah hit 121°F the next day.

According to authorities, northwestern and central India are believed to have experienced their hottest April on record. The country as a whole saw its hottest March in 122 years of recorded history and its fourth-hottest April.

Along with the extended heat wave have come wildfires and devastating impact on  harvests as well as widespread power cuts. We are already seeing a serious impact on crops, including wheat, fruits and vegetables. Yields from wheat crops has dropped by up to 50% in some of the areas worst hit by the extreme temperatures. This situation may dovetail with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has already had a devastating impact on grain supplies.

In the  Mastung district, known for its apple and peach orchards, harvests have been wiped out.

In the mountainous region to the north, glacial ice and snow are melting so fast that increasingly common glacial lake outburst floods are feared.  In the cities and villages further south, kids are coming home from school with heat stroke.

According to Robert Rohde, lead scientist at climate nonprofit Berkeley Earth it’s not just about a few days of record breaking heat. “The significance of the current Indian/Pakistani heatwave is less about smashing records … and more about very long duration,” said Rohde. While this region is historically hot in late spring and summer, the current situation is occurring months earlier than normal, a trend that began a decade ago.

In this region and others (including the Middle East), we have reached the limits of what the human body can withstand.  When combined with humidity, these temps are within the range in which the human body begin to cook itself.

An ironic side effect (if your sense of irony hasn’t already been baked out) is that India’s demand for coal has spiked in response to demand for energy.

This particular extreme event does not “prove” the immediacy of the global warming emergency in and of itself. But in combination with all other events and trends happening as we speak, there is no other conclusion possible.  

 

Climate Shock Events April 2022 Update

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Spring Global Warming Update

“I’m not ready for this. Not this early…”*

Louisiana: New Climate Refugees As Waters Close In

Only 15 miles south of New Orleans, the waters around Grand Island, Barataria,  Crown Pointe, and Jean Lafitte are continuing to rise, threatening long time residents of the bayou area.  About a football field worth of wetland disappears every two hours.

South Africa: Over 400 dead in “unprecedented” flooding:

Horrendous rains have brought lethal flooding and landslides that have displaced thousands the Durban, South Africa region. The humanitarian disaster, as always, is magnified by malfeasance on the part of the powers what is. More than a decade ago, poor families were relocated away from a new soccer stadium and dumped in a flood prone area, where they remain. Damages are currently estimated at $684 million and rising. The death toll will climb. 

Bering Sea: Warming Ocean Threatens Crab Fisheries

Add Alaskan snow crab to the growing list of marine animals  threatened by rapidly changing conditions on the ground, or, in this case, in the Bering Sea. Extreme ocean warming in the area around the Pribilof Islands  (between Siberia and Alaska) has crashed the population down nearly 90% from 2021 levels. Read the Article.

Siberia/Alaska: Methane / Permafrost Thaw Reshapes the Arctic

There is a lot of CH4 trapped beneath the surface of the planet, particularly under the permafrost in Siberia, Alaska and other Arctic regions. As the permafrost thaws, the gases trapped below it spew into the atmosphere, creating a climate feedback cycle with results that are observable in something close to real time. Visit the Page.

The Poles: Insane Temps At Both Poles

Late winter in the Arctic temperatures were about 70°F above the normal average at some measurement stations. Some near North Pole stations reported the beginning of melt. New heat records were also established in Antarctica with temperatures of over 50°F above the normal average in March. Visit the Page.

Great Barrier Reef: New Mass Bleaching Event

Another widespread die-off at the World Heritage site off the northern coast of Australia marks the sixth such catastrophe since 1998. This ongoing environmental disaster is driven by warming oceans and pollution. The most recent aerial survey shows almost no reefs across a 1,200km stretch unaffected by the elevated water temperatures.  See Australia’s New Normal video.

Great Salt Lake: Toxic Dust Events Loom In Utah

The inland sea that forms the iconic core of Utah’s Latter Day culture is in danger of disappearing as it reaches its lowest level. About half of the original lakebed area is now dry land  In the process, thousands of square miles of dry lake bed is exposed, laying open vast expanses of toxic dust.

India: Record Deadly Heat Begins The Year

Life-threatening heat waves are shattering temperature records, with highs reaching over 100°F. High temperatures are expected to climb to 10°F to 15°F above normal. 

Antarctica: Another Major Ice Shelf Collapse

East Antarctica’s Conger ice shelf – a floating platform the size of Rome – broke off the continent on March 15, 2022.

American West: Mega Drought Driving Water Emergencies

Lake Mead has dropped to an unprecedented low and other regional reservoirs have reached emergency levels as the western drought continues. Hydropower is likely to be curtailed and blackouts are expected. Read the Article.

Afghanistan: 5 Million Children At Risk of Starvation As Crops Fail In Historic Drought

Five million children near are starvation in Afghanistan amid the worst drought since records began. “When there is no rain the land is dry and we can’t grow anything … The drought has completely devastated our land.”

*Flagstaff, AZ resident watching her neighborhood go up in smoke, quoted April 21, 2022 in the New York Times.

Bordeaux: Wine Regions Scramble As Heat Threatens Grapes

Violent weather events—frost, hail, storms, rain at harvest, dry summers—have become more frequent. Slow to acknowledge the creeping disaster, French wine authorities have authorized planting of new varieties. 

Iceland: Land Mass Rising As Huge Glaciers Melt Away

Coastal water levels are dropping even as melting land glaciers dump tons of fresh water into the North Atlantic. As the immense weight of Iceland’s glacial ice mass disappears into the North Atlantic, the land beneath it is “bouncing back”, more or less springing up as the burden is removed. So seas seem to be dropping lower on the coasts of Iceland even though water level is relative to the land mass. Read the Article.

Australia: The Relentless Onslaught of the New Normal

The reality of calamitous sea level rise smashes into Sidney as tidal onslaught tears boats their moorings. Bondi and Clovelly beach clubs and hotels took a pounding from huge wind driven swells. The second major cleanup follows a major flooding event only three weeks ago.  It’s all part of Australia’s New Normal (see our video). 

Syria: Lethal Drought Continues Into Third Decade

The root cause of the so war in Syria was an unrelenting drought that brought farmers to their knees. It moves into its third decade as the worst in the Middle East for at least 1,000 years. Conditions have worsened in the past two years: Herds have been culled and crops are generally devastated. The iconic Khabur river is at record lows.. 

Argentina: Wildfires & Serial Heat Waves

After a scorching heatwave, Argentina is suffering another round  of raging wildfires that torched forests and farms across its northern region. Authorities estimate early losses at a quarter billion dollars with 2 million acres torched. The region has been experiencing record heat this year, baking in unprecedented temperatures up to 113°F.

Kenya: Water Shortages, Dead Livestock and Ruined Harvests as Desertification Moves In

Kenya and the Horn of Africa are in the third year of failed rainy seasons as the desert takes back the land. 5.5 million children in the region are threatened by acute malnutrition. Millions of head of livestock have died of malnutrition and in Kenya, Forecasts indicate that below average rainfall will continue into the foreseeable future.

Brazil: Mass Rainforest Ecocide

The far right Brazilian administration has accelerated the plundering of indigenous lands; what environmental regulations remain are essentially gone. Many scientists now believe the critical forest carbon sink has crossed the final tipping point in terms of climate effects. When forests are cleared, another climate feedback cycle is triggered. 

Sahel: Sahara Moving South To Claim Central Africa

Life-threatening heat waves are shattering temperature records, with highs reaching over 100°F. High temperatures are expected to climb to 10°F to 15°F above normal. 

Indonesia: Papua’s Last Glacier Almost Gone

Little remains of the ironically named Eternity Glacier in Papua’s Jayawijaya mountains. The once might ice formation is expected to be gone by 2025.

Gulf Stream: AMOC continues to slow

The Gulf Stream carries warmer waters north, where they serve to moderate the climate of northern Europe. Look at the latitude of Western Europe and you will see how far north the nations that invaded North America are located compared to the US east coast. The global ocean current is driven by salinity changes in the northern sea, which causes surface waters to change density and sink (that’s basically how it works). When this mechanical process is disrupted, weather becomes unpredictable and extreme, extended events more common.

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Iceland’s Land Mass Rises As Mammoth Glaciers Melt Away

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UNFORSEEN CONSEQUENCES: Changes due to massive glacier melt are surprising 

One of the most dangerous and visible effects of global heating is that sea levels are rising almost everywhere around the planet. Coastal areas such as the US Eastern Seaboard, Louisiana, Alaska, China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Japan are already becoming inundated by salt water, while Pacific Islands such as the Maldives and the Marshall Islands are facing existential choices.

Globally, average sea level has risen by more than a foot (20cm) since 1900, and the rate of rise has accelerated since 1990.

In general, seas are rising because the land ice on Antarctica, Greenland and other huge ice caps is melting faster than ever, and the trillions of tons of water locked up in the ice gushes into the oceans. The coastal ice shelves that have slowed the flow to the sea are collapsing. This is simple. Less obvious is the other major cause of sea level rise, which is that the volume of the global ocean is expanding as the waters warm. Just basic physics.

But (along with such phenomena as methane craters blowing holes in the thawing permafrost) there are unexpected developments that one might call counter intuitive.

In Iceland, coastal water levels are dropping even as melting land glaciers dump tons of fresh water into the North Atlantic each day. That is because as the immense weight of Iceland’s glacial ice mass disappears into the North Atlantic, the land beneath it is “bouncing back”, more or less springing up as the burden is removed. So seas seem to be dropping lower on the coasts of Iceland even though water level is relative to the land mass.

But this is more than just another entry in global warming fun facts. In terms of practical effects, the shallower bays and estuaries are becoming more treacherous to navigate for fishing vessels. While rising coastal waters can be contained to some degree by human infrastructure, there is no remedy for this scenario.

No one is winning in this tug of war.

 

iceland glaciers sea level change
As the graphic shows, this same process is propelling the excess water to other parts of the globe, accelerating the real sea level rise in places already at risk. The is where the invisible hand of gravity is at work. The once mighty glaciers have historically exerted a “pull” on nearby waters, bringing the waters closer to Iceland; as they diminish, however, the gravitational pull is reduced and the waters move to other parts of the planet.

 

 

 

CURRENT CLIMATE SHOCKS 2022

LINK TO THESE STORIES AND MORE

  • New American Climate Refugees As Waters Close In On Louisiana Communities
  • South Africa: Over 400 dead in “unprecedented” flooding
  • NOAA Report indicates methane feedback cycle may be irreversible
  • Idaho faces another year of critical water shortages
  • Gulf Stream / AMOC continues to slow
  • ANOTHER ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF COLLAPSES 

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Recent Climate Posts:

Snow crab is one of many marine food species that is not going to make the long haul: Read article here.

Interesting and alarming developments across the Arctic as permafrost melts and more greenhouse gases spew into the atmosphere. Read article here.

 

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Warming Ocean Threatens Snow Crab Harvest

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Snow crab is one of many marine food species that is not going to make the long haul 

Rapid decline of Bering sea ice has unexpected long term consequences for crab fisheries

Add Alaskan snowcrab to the growing list of marine animals  threatened by rapidly changing conditions on the ground, or, in this case, in the Bering Sea. Extreme ocean warming in the area around the Pribilof Islands  (between Siberia and Alaska) has crashed the population, causing Alaska state biologists to slash this year’s harvest of snow crab to just 5.6 million pounds — down nearly 90% from 2021 levels.

The problem with snowcrab is a precipitous decline of sea ice in the Bering Sea, a situation that has been going downhill for a decade. Snow crab rely on the ice to protect them from predators as they grow.

Other threatened marine food is shellfish (clams, oysters, mussels and calamari (the squid are heading north).

 

2022 Climate Shocks

  • Another year of critical water shortages in Idaho
  • Sydney Harbor smashed by sea-level driven tides.
  • Afghanistan historic drought
  • Antarctic ice shelf breaks away

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Climate Feedback Cycles….

  • Sea ice melt (albedo)
  • Wildfires (Rainforest / Siberia)
  • Methane & Permafrost collapse

Visit This Page

 

The Pain of Methane In The Arctic Terrain

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New CH4 sources contribute to another new methane emissions record in 2021.

CH4 is CO2’s meaner older brother, far more destructive but with a shorter attention span. Methane is indeed a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, rated anywhere from 20 to 30 times more potent than regular carbon dioxide. Carbon emissions show no signs of being actually reduced world wide and atmospheric levels continuing to set records, the carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere is going to be there for eons. Pumping more methane into the skies at this moment in time is the worst thing that could happen to our lame efforts to mitigate the climate emergency. 

NEW METHANE LEAKS AND PLUMES:

There are two additional source of methane emissions to consider:

  • Seafloor blowout craters beneath the waters in the Northern oceans. More here.
  • New revelations that the fossil boys have been understating the quantities of methane leaking from gas wells. Shocking.

AS PERMAFROST THAWS LIFE IN THE ARCTIC CHANGES FAST

  • The terrain itself is transforming as long trapped gases cause land to sink, ponds to melt and new craters to form.
  • Infrastructure is literally collapsing as the ground beneath it sinks.

    See more.

The permafrost/methane cycle is climate feedback cycle #3, and inexorable process that feeds on itself and is already having amazing consequences. Who needs movies about dystopian futures?

More Climate Feedback Cycles

 

 

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Key Links On Rapid Climate Change

April 2022 Current Updates

  • Sydney Harbor smashed by sea-level driven tides.
  • Afghanistan historic drought
  • Antarctic ice shelf breaks away

Summary of 2022 Global Warming Shocks

Tough three months:

  • Freakishly high temps at both poles
  • West coast drought worsens
  • Great Barrier Reef another mass die-off
  • Texas wildfires
  • More Australian monster floods
  • Argentina wildfires
  • Worsening Rainforest Ecocide
  • Kenya desertification worsens
  • Great Salt Lake disappearing
  • Syrian famine/drought
  • Antarctic ice shelves melting from below

Visit this page.

Climate Feedback Cycles (Feedback loops)

The three simple but irreversible critical climate cycles explain clearly why we are in a crisis that will not go away.

#1 Disappearing Sea Ice reflects less solar energy, heating oceans, melting more sea ice.

#2 Global fires release massive quantities of CO₂ into the atmosphere, causing more fires and deforestation.

#3 Methane escapes melting permafrost, causing more waming, causing more permafrost thaw.

Visit this page.

 

Freakishly High Temperatures at Both Poles

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Arctic + 70°F over normal temperatures | Antarctic 50°F over normal temperatures

 

Perhaps one of the reasons most people are not quite grasping the scale of the global climate catastrophe is that some of the most significant events are happening in places most people don’t go. Nevertheless, weather satellites are currently reporting data from the poles that should alarm anyone and everyone (not that there is a shortage of that type of news).

It is late winter in the Arctic but temperatures are nearly at the freezing mark, about 70°F above the normal average at some measurement stations. Some near North Pole stations reported the beginning of melt, far earlier in the season than normal.

On the other end of the planet, temperature records are being set on these last days of Summer. On Friday March 18, the Concordia weather (at two miles altitude) reported 10F and the Vostok station hit 0, a new all-time record by 27 degrees. Terra Nova base was at a balmy 44.6°F. As opposed to the West Antarctic Peninsula, these temps are happening on the vast frozen Eastern Antarctica land mass, the coldest place on Earth.

At the same time, Antarctic sea ice extent is at an all time record low since measurement began in 1979;

According to National Snow and Ice Data Center’s Walt Meier:  “It’s pretty stunning. They are opposite seasons. You don’t see the north and the south (poles) both melting at the same time.  It’s definitely an unusual occurrence.”

Another scientist was less circumspect. “Wow. I have never seen anything like this in the Antarctic.*

Anomalies happen all the time or they would not be called anomalies; it is the one two punch of these simultaneous conditions that has climate scientists comparing the situation to the extended killer 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest.

While it is well documented that the Arctic is warming two to three times as fast as the rest of the planet, Antarctica has been less dramatic. (That doesn’t mean it isn’t getting hotter, it’s that the rate of increase is more modest).

Yes indeed. There are plenty of unusual occurrences to go around these days.

US Extreme Drought Area Continues To Expand

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The mega drought that has afflicted the Western USA for two decades is expanding into the Plains states, bringing the total area of drought to 60%. This week’s drought affliction increases the total square miles by the equivalent of California. 

According to NOAA’s spring outlook, the conditions will persist through get worse and spread as temperatures remain well above normal and precipitation continues to decline.

As of early March, more than half of Kansas has been in severe drought, with Texas more than two thirds and 75% of Oklahoma.  

Among the most immediate effects will be a decline in winter wheat production, which is taking place just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens global wheat supplies

In California, water authorities are staring down a continuation of an ongoing water shortage as reservoirs fail to recover after freak storms that hit in late winter. 

Lake Powell, one of a handful of critical reservoirs, is now at 3,525 feet, the lowest level since it was created in 1953. If water levels sink much more, hydropower will be shut down. In the Central Valley, three year precipitation totals are at a record low. If these trends hold, the ever worsening wildfire season will get worse.