The future of a warming planet is reflected in Ice

Future of a warming planet is reflected in ICE

Glacial Lake Outbursts to collapsing Permafrost feedback loops

Ice is the key

The cause and effect relationship between ice and global warming extends far beyond the melting ice caps of the polar regions. From polar ice caps to permafrost to mountain glaciers, there is virtually nowhere the planet’s frozen water isn’t melting. The consequences are not always obvious. This page covers several topics not generally obvious to the public.

The future of a warming planet is reflected in ice

Thwaites Ice Shelf
The Twaites Glacier ice shelf on the West Antarctic is known as the “Doomsday Glacier” and expected to break up in the very near future. If it collapsed completely, it would raise sea levels about two feet.
Albedo Feedback sea ice
ALBEDO REFLECTIVITY FEEDBACK LOOP: This relentless feedback cycle is easy to understand. Ice and snow reflects heat energy back into space. When it disappears, the energy goes into dark ocean water, further heating it. The ocean, which is warming at an alarming rate, melts more ice, which opens more water to the heat energy. Repeat. See other climate feedbacks.

Polar Ice Formations

SEA ICE: Disappearing rapidly in the Arctic and more sporadically in the Antarctic since 2016 It does not raise sea levels when it melts but does affect weather patterns and the Albedo reflectivity feedback. ANTARCTICA: Rapid Antarctic sea ice decline contributes to ocean current destabilization, which in tern affects weather patterns.

LAND ICE: Trillions of tons of land ice on Greenland and the Antarctic continent contains enough fresh water to raise sea levels several meters if melted. 

SHELF ICE: Hybrid formations are critical to braking flow of land ice to the ocean.

GLOF triggers flash floods in Nepal
DESTABILIZATION: ROCK FALLS The Himalayan climate threat is more complex than melting glaciers alone. It involves a destabilization of the entire high-mountain environment. Rock formations are held together by ice, which functions are a “glue.”  

Rapid “third pole” ice melt threatens water supplies for 2 billion humans

DISAPPEARING ICE IN HIMALAYAN GLACIERS IS ACCELERATING A MAMMOTH WATER CRISIS

The Himalayas store more frozen water than any other source except the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. High mountain glaciers feed rivers that sustain nearly one-fourth of the world’s population. Billions downstream have relied on a predictable seasonal release of glacial water into rivers but global warming has quickly changed the scenario.  With some glaciers losing ice mass at four times the normal rate, the region faces a convergence of environmental, health, and geopolitical crises.

TWO PRONGED CRISIS: Near term, accelerated melting can produce too much water too quickly—including devastating Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Longer term, continued glacier shrinkage means less dependable water during the dry season, when millions of people most need it.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods increasing rapidly
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods increasing rapidly

Global consequences of rapid Permafrost thaw

The vast tundras of the north are thawing rapidly as the Arctic warms four times fast than the rest of the planet. While relatively few people think much about these unseen forces, the ramifications are global and powerful.

Methane Plumes: Melting permafrost is causing release of CO2 and CH4 trapped beneath once frozen surface. This is one cause for the rapid uptick in atmospheric methane. Siberian levels of CH4 emissions have double in ten years.

Infrastructure Collapse: Biblical savior Joshua ben Joseph recommended not building your house on sand, but he should have also mentioned permafrost. In Alaska, Siberia and northern Canada, buildings, highways and pipelines are falling down. Humans constructed these artifacts under the assumption that the land would stay solid, but it is NOT staying solid. As the ground sinks, buildings, roads and bridges are damaged, sometimes destroyed. The situation is worse in coastal communities as increased water temperatures reduce protective ice and allow waves to wreck permafrost bluffs and increase erosion. 

Megaslump craters and Thermokarst blasting out all over, transforming Arctic terrain. These wild formations (also known as thaw slumps) are not new, but suddenly they are growing and multiplying. They are craters formed by methane gases escaping as the permafrost that once capped it disintegrates. We now see footage of grassland wobbling as the substrata becomes wobbly. When the pressure grows to great, there is a blowout. The resulting thermokarst landscape is expanding.

Melting permafrost and damage to human infrastructure
Melting permafrost and damage to human infrastructure. In Alaska, Siberia and northern Canada, buildings, highways and pipelines are falling down. Humans constructed these artifacts under the assumption that the land would remain solid forever, but it is NOT staying solid
Megaslump craters blasting out in Siberia/
While megaslumps are not new in places like Siberia, the number has been increasing as Arctic ground destabilizes. Megaslumps include land formations such as the ever expanding Hell’s Gate crater in Siberia and thermokarst landscapes?
Permafrost is thawing rapidly in the Arctic, releasing once trapped methane and carbon monoxide.
Permafrost is thawing rapidly in the Arctic, releasing once trapped methane and carbon monoxide.
  1. Permafrost thaws, releasing greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4).
  2. GHG’s trap heat in the atmosphere, increasing surface temperatures
  3. Permafrost melts faster, releasing more CH4.

Pathogens have already been released: 

Permanently frozen environments are natural reservoirs for microorganisms, including viruses, bacteria and humans pathogens. It is not currently considered likely that dangerous microbes such as smallpox are about to be released, but there is no question that dormant viruses will be released as the Arctic continues to heat up. The region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Which is warming very fast.

In 2015, researchers from Aix-Marseille University isolated  two large DNA viruses in Siberia frozen for 30,000 years in ancient permafrost. They were not a threat to humans.

There was a well-documented anthrax outbreak in 2016 in Siberia. It killed thousands of reindeer. The cause of the outbreak is attributed to the activation of spores due to a permafrost thaw, accelerated during the summer heat wave of that year.

Freshwater melting from Greenland and Iceland affects the AMOC

Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by adding large quantities of fresh water to the North Atlantic. The mechanism is straightforward, but the magnitude of the effect is still an active area of research. The AMOC is essentially a huge ocean conveyor. Warm, salty surface water moves northward through the Atlantic. In the subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, some of this water cools, becomes dense and sinks, forming deep water that flows southward. That sinking is one of the engines driving the overturning circulation.

Greenland’s ice sheet is freshwater stored on land. When it melts and reaches the ocean, it changes the salinity of the North Atlantic:

Greenland and Iceland: Unexpected forces at work

1. THE LAND MASS OF BOTH ISLANDS IS RISING AS THEY SHED THE WEIGHT OF ICE CAPS

There is no question that the addition of two mile thick melting ice caps into the ocean is raising sea levels. But there is a less obvious effect as well.

2. THE ADDITION OF MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FRESH WATER INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS SLOWING DOWN THE GULF STREAM (AMOC)

Seas will rise this century—but not uniformly like water in a bathtub. In the very places where 

Greenland land mass rebounds as fresh water ice melts
Seas will rise this century—but not uniformly like water in a bathtub. In the very places where glaciers are melting and shrinking, the land beneath will rebound as the burden eases, meaning seas may fall even as the meltwater causes them to rise elsewhere. A new study shows that in Greenland—whose rapidly melting ice sheet accounts for about one-fifth of current sea level rise—this paradox will mean expanding coastlines, dried-up fjords, and future complications.