Glacial Lake Outbursts | Collapsing Permafrost | Feedback loops
Crumbling mountains | Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current
Ice is the key…everywhere
The cause and effect relationship between ice and global warming extends far beyond the melting ice caps of the polar regions. From polar ice caps to permafrost to mountain glaciers, there is virtually nowhere the planet’s frozen water isn’t melting. The consequences are not always obvious. This page covers several topics not generally obvious to the public.
- Albedo reflectivity feedback
- Permafrost collapse \ methane feedback
- Glacier Lake Outburst Floods
- Melting ice “glue” causing Alpine rock falls
- The Third Pole and the threat to Asian fresh water supply
- The affect of fresh water melt on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
Polar Ice Formations: How they affect global climate
Each type behaves differently
A key factor in global ice melting patterns is a matter of basic geography that is often overlooked. The North Pole is frozen ocean, while the South Pole is on a massive land continent covered by trillions of tons of snow pack and ice.
SEA ICE: Disappearing rapidly in the Arctic and more sporadically in the Antarctic since 2016. Sea ice floats and does not raise sea levels when it melts. It does affect weather patterns and theAlbedo reflectivity feedback. ANTARCTICA: Rapid Antarctic sea ice decline contributes to ocean current destabilization, which in tern affects weather patterns.
LAND ICE: Trillions of tons of land ice on Greenland, Alaska and the Antarctic continent contains enough fresh water to raise sea levels several meters if melted.
SHELF ICE: Hybrid formations are critical to braking flow of land ice to the ocean. The “front” of an ice shelf rests on land and the back floating in the ocean, subjecting it to accelerated warming.
The Doomsday Ice Shelf
The Twaites Glacier ice shelf on the West Antarctic peninsula is known as the “Doomsday Glacier.” It is expected to break up in the very near future. If it collapsed completely, it would raise global sea levels about two feet. Equally alarming, coastal shelves act as a brake on the advancing land ice on the continent behind them.
Albedo Reflectivity Feedback
ALBEDO REFLECTIVITY FEEDBACK LOOP: This relentless cycle is easy to understand. Ice and snow reflects heat energy back into space. When ice disappears, the heat energy is absorbed directly into dark ocean water, heating it. The ocean melts more ice, which opens more water to the heat energy. Repeat. See other climate feedbacks..
“Third pole” ice melt threatens water supplies for 2 billion humans
The Hindu Kush Himalaya supplies water to major river systems including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Yellow River, Mekong and Amu Darya
The Himalayan ecosphere is changing before our eyes
DISAPPEARING ICE IN HIMALAYAN GLACIERS IS ACCELERATING A MAMMOTH WATER CRISIS
The Himalayas store more frozen water than any other source except the Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets. High mountain glaciers feed rivers that sustain nearly one-fourth of the world’s population. Billions downstream have relied on a predictable seasonal release of glacial water into rivers but global warming has quickly changed the scenario. With some glaciers losing ice mass at four times the normal rate, the region faces a convergence of environmental, health, and geopolitical crises.
TWO PRONGED CRISIS: Near term, accelerated melting can produce too much water too quickly—including devastating Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Longer term, continued glacier shrinkage means less dependable water during the dry season, when millions of people most need it.
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Destabilized mountain structure
DESTABILIZATION: ROCK FALLS The Himalayan climate threat is more complex than melting glaciers alone. It involves a destabilization of the entire high-mountain environment. Rock formations are held together by ice, which functions as a “glue.” When ice that has previously remained frozen year round melts and refreezes, allowing water to penetrate cracks previoulsy held together by frozen soil. The entire mountain slopeis structurally compromised. At some point, the side of the mountain collapses in a rock fall or landslide.
Glacier retreat also removes ice that can buttress mountain slopes.
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
While the catastrophic Nepal event that killed 10,000 is a major GLOF event, is it not an isolated occurrence. In 2023, the South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim, India, killed dozens of people and caused extensive infrastructure damage.
HOW GLOFs HAPPEN: As glaciers retreat, meltwater accumulates in lakes behind unstable moraine or ice dams. These lakes can grow rapidly. A landslide, avalanche, ice collapse, earthquake or extreme rainfall can suddenly displace water or breach the dam:
These floods can travel rapidly down narrow valleys, carrying boulders, mud, trees and enormous quantities of sediment.
About 200 glacial lakes across the Hindu Kush Himalaya are considered dangerous, and projects that GLOF risk will increase substantially as warming continues
Global consequences of rapid Permafrost thaw
The vast tundras of the north are thawing rapidly as the Arctic warms four times faster than the rest of the planet. While relatively few people think much about these unseen forces, the ramifications are global and relentless.
Methane Plumes: Melting permafrost is causing release of CO2 and CH4 trapped beneath once frozen surface. This is one cause for the rapid uptick in atmospheric methane. Siberian levels of CH4 emissions have double in ten years.
Infrastructure Collapse: Biblical savior Joshua ben Joseph recommended not building your house on sand, but he should have also mentioned permafrost. In Alaska, Siberia and northern Canada, buildings, highways and pipelines are falling down. Humans constructed these artifacts under the assumption that the land would stay solid, but it is NOT staying solid. As the ground sinks, buildings, roads and bridges are damaged, sometimes destroyed. The situation is worse in coastal communities as increased water temperatures reduce protective ice and allow waves to wreck permafrost bluffs and increase erosion.
Megaslump craters and Thermokarst blasting out all over, transforming Arctic terrain. These wild formations (also known as thaw slumps) are not new, but suddenly they are growing and multiplying. They are craters formed by methane gases escaping as the permafrost that once capped it disintegrates. We now see footage of grassland wobbling as the substrata becomes wobbly. When the pressure grows to great, there is a blowout. The resulting thermokarst landscape is expanding.
Microbes beneath the tundra: Pathogens have already been released:
Permanently frozen environments are natural reservoirs for microorganisms, including viruses, bacteria and humans pathogens. It is not currently considered likely that dangerous microbes such as smallpox are about to be released, but there is no question that dormant viruses will be released as the Arctic continues to heat up. The region is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. Which is warming very fast.
In 2015, researchers from Aix-Marseille University isolated two large DNA viruses in Siberia frozen for 30,000 years in ancient permafrost. They were not a threat to humans.
There was a well-documented anthrax outbreak in 2016 in Siberia. It killed thousands of reindeer. The cause of the outbreak is attributed to the activation of spores due to a permafrost thaw, accelerated during the summer heat wave of that year.
Powerful Methane Feedback Loop as Arctic tundra thaws
- Permafrost thaws, releasing greenhouse gases (CO2 , CH4).
- GHG’s trap heat in the atmosphere, increasing surface temperatures
- Permafrost melts faster, releasing more CH4.
Nature points out the hubris of human endeavors
Melting permafrost and damage to human infrastructure. In Alaska, Siberia and northern Canada, buildings, highways and pipelines are falling down. Humans constructed these artifacts under the assumption that the land would remain solid forever, but it is NOT staying solid.
Greenland and Iceland: Unexpected forces at work
The Hindu Kush Himalaya supplies water to major river systems including the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Yellow River, Mekong and Amu Darya
As massive quantities of fresh water enter the ocean, things are changing quickly
1. THE LAND MASS OF BOTH ISLANDS IS RISING AS THEY SHED THE WEIGHT OF ICE CAPS
There is no question that the addition of two mile thick melting ice caps into the ocean is raising sea levels. But there is a less obvious effect as well.
2. THE ADDITION OF MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF FRESH WATER INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS SLOWING DOWN THE GULF STREAM (AMOC)
The Gulf Stream is the best known component of the global ocean current known as the Atlantic Overturning Current. This massive current is responsible for a major component of planetary weather.
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Destabilized mountain structure
DESTABILIZATION: ROCK FALLS The Himalayan climate threat is more complex than melting glaciers alone. It involves a destabilization of the entire high-mountain environment. Rock formations are held together by ice, which functions as a “glue.” When ice that has previously remained frozen year round melts and refreezes, allowing water to penetrate cracks previoulsy held together by frozen soil. The entire mountain slopeis structurally compromised. At some point, the side of the mountain collapses in a rock fall or landslide.
Glacier retreat also removes ice that can buttress mountain slopes.
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
While the catastrophic Nepal event that killed 10,000 is a major GLOF event, is it not an isolated occurrence. In 2023, the South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim, India, killed dozens of people and caused extensive infrastructure damage.
HOW GLOFs HAPPEN: As glaciers retreat, meltwater accumulates in lakes behind unstable moraine or ice dams. These lakes can grow rapidly. A landslide, avalanche, ice collapse, earthquake or extreme rainfall can suddenly displace water or breach the dam:
These floods can travel rapidly down narrow valleys, carrying boulders, mud, trees and enormous quantities of sediment.
About 200 glacial lakes across the Hindu Kush Himalaya are considered dangerous, and projects that GLOF risk will increase substantially as warming continues